China's Belt and Road Initiative

The 'one-belt-one-road' (OBOR ) initiative is the most talked about agenda – which has captured the imagination of a great many people, both supporters and detractors of the idea – to have been enunciated by any Chinese leader since the Four Modernisation programme implemented by Deng Xiaoping beginning in 1978. The only difference perhaps is the fact that the implementation of the latest Chinese formula is predicated on the involvement of a host of participating countries situated along the 'belt and the route', while the latter was more internal oriented. But the ultimate objective was and is economic.

While the Four Modernisation programme was designed to rejuvenate the Chinese economy, the latest initiative, first introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, seeks to economically integrate relevant countries through the revival of the old trade routes – the Westward Land Route and the Maritime Silk Route – both combined under the rubric of OBOR. The concept seeks involvement of these countries for regional and global economic development where all the stakeholders become equal beneficiaries. Understandably, China's leading role in this will establish it more firmly as the number one (it already is, at least on the basis of purchasing power parity) economy in the world. According to one scholar, that China is already the leading economy in the world had been acknowledged way back in 2010 in a Pew Global Attitude Survey where more Americans, British, French, Germans, Russians and Japanese believed that the Chinese economy was larger than US', belying the Goldman Sachs Report of 2007 that it were not to happen before 2027.

At a time when the world is torn apart by conflicts, and the mad rush to capture, or influence the control of the world's resources through direct and proxy wars, has reached a sickening level, when nations are falling apart causing immense human misery due to imposed wars, when hearths and homes are being discarded to escape the wrath of war, we have a new idea thrown up by the Chinese that should bring people and countries together through, not hogging, but sharing of resources and where interdependence of countries, which are in different stages of development, becomes a tool of their economic growth, only more equitably. And that is what came out very loud and clear at a forum of media men - 122 of them from 60 different countries- organised by The People's Daily in Beijing very recently. The forum was entitled "Media Cooperation Forum on One belt & One Road."

There are of course both the stated and implicit motivations of the progenitors of the idea which embraces both the strategic and the economic realms. And this further reinforces the view that economic consideration remains the major motive force of all initiatives, plans and agenda. But what catches one's interest is the repeated emphasis by the Chinese on the fact that the OBOR will provide a bridge between minds and bring civilisations closer. History teaches us that when minds are brought nearer, misperceptions and misgivings start to disappear. And the need for deeper economic cooperation would motivate the countries to dedicate more resources for shared economic goals and which would in turn make it easier to involve in consultations to benefit from the wisdom of others and synergise the ways and means of implementing the idea. What a deeper economic cooperation would also help do is harmonise development efforts, reduce competition and, most importantly, reduce the potential of conflict.  

Although the idea is planned to be inclusive in all respects with multi-dimensional ventures and is more than only an infrastructure project involving IT, financial integration, cross-border trade and investment and the Chinese emphasise on three NOs – no hegemonic aspiration, no interference in others' internal affairs and no sphere of influence - there are still misgivings in some countries about China's motivation behind the initiative.

Officially India is yet to declare support for the project as it sees the idea being 'mired in curiosity', according to an Indian participant in the Forum. And there are apprehensions in India too about China's "grand strategy" and "hegemonic aspirations." South East Asian countries share similar reservations, owing to the existing territorial disputes, including South China Sea. They are also unsure of the effect the projects might have should there be economic instability in China itself. On the other hand, some scholars fear that the US may try to scuttle the scheme fearing that the project might jeopardise its predominance of the sea routes. And according to Michel Chossudovsky, US policy stands in the way of the OBOR strategy and it is busy conquering economic space through war rather than cooperating.

We, on our part, should welcome the restoration of the old silk route and economic integration. However, there is need to sensitise all the 60 countries in the route about what it actually is. The multiple objectives of the initiative must be prioritised and an implementation strategy worked out to meet the ends.         

 The writer is Associate Editor, The Daily Star.