Prospects of climate action

As the year 2016 comes to an end and we step into 2017, we stand on a major fork in the road with respect to tackling climate change both globally as well as in Bangladesh. First let me describe the main developments that took place in 2016 and then I will speculate with respect to the possible future pathways in 2017 and beyond.

The year 2016, in terms of climate change action, was a critical one as the Paris Agreement which was agreed on December 12, 2015 was ratified in country after country in record speed to enable it to come into force as international law by November 4, 2016. This is the fastest global ratification process in history and was largely due to the strong diplomatic push by President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry initially with China and then with others to ensure that the Agreement came into force as international law before the US presidential elections. In retrospect, I cannot help but think that Obama was making sure to lock in his successor into the Agreement.

As a result even if President-elect Trump decides after he takes office to withdraw from the Paris Agreement the US will have to wait for three years after it formally submits its notice of withdrawal, as per the rules of the Agreement.

There are two other significant things that happened in 2016 that are of special significance. The first was the agreement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in New York in September with SDG 13 focusing on climate change. Thus the SDGs along with the Paris Agreement—both with a timeline up to 2030—make the next fifteen years crucial for the future of the planet, particularly for low income people in the poorest countries.

The other aspect of 2016 is the reality of climate change itself which manifested itself as record high temperatures, loss of ice in the poles, floods, droughts and hurricanes around the globe. These real life climate change effects have convinced even some die-hard climate change deniers of the reality of human-induced climate change.

On January 20, 2017 when Mr. Trump becomes President Trump we will be faced with the uncertainty of the new President taking action to either pull out of the Paris Agreement or stay in. Based on his previous statements expressing scepticism about human-induced climate change and, more importantly, his cabinet appointments of staunch climate change deniers the chances are quite strong that he will fulfil his campaign promises to pull out of the Paris Agreement and reverse all of Obama's domestic regulations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from coal fired power plants.

In my view it is Mr. Trump's denial of the science and reality of climate change which is more dangerous than whether he withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement or not. If he tries to undo Obama's actions and promotes more use of fossil fuels he will be going against the trend of history.

My view is that even though a US government that is anti-science and against taking action to fight climate change is a setback for us globally, the rest of the world will remain committed to carrying on with the implementation of the Paris Agreement and will work towards the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. If this indeed becomes reality then 2017 may well mark the year when the world turns its back on fossil fuels and enters the century of renewable.

In Bangladesh we also face a similar crossroads in 2017 in terms of shifting our thinking away from fossil fuel based and unplanned growth towards a more sustainable development pathway. We only have fifteen years ahead of us to make the transition to a sustainable Bangladesh so the sooner we start the shift, the better.

The writer is Director, International Centre for Climate Change and Development at the Independent University, Bangladesh.
E-mail: Saleemul.huq@iied.org