‘Our people kept our economy strong ’

The Bangladesh economy has weathered the pandemic storm better than others and it is thanks to its citizens, said Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal.

"Our people never stopped working. They left it to God and went about their livelihoods. Our people are very resilient -- they never give up," he told The Daily Star on Sunday.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's stimulus packages amounting to Tk 124,053 crore, which is equivalent to 4.4 percent of the country's GDP growth, also helped stem the tide of the coronavirus juggernaut that caused the global economic growth to plunge to -3 percent in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Subsequently, Kamal expects the economy to clock in GDP growth of no less than 6 percent this fiscal year, which will wrap up on June 30.

"I am an accountant and with all the numbers I have in front of me, I can safely say that our growth would be more than 5 percent. The vibrations that I am seeing in the economy, I expect the GDP growth to be 6.1 percent."

The World Bank projected Bangladesh's GDP to grow at 3.6 percent in fiscal 2020-21, while the Asian Development Bank expects the growth to be in the range of 5.5-6 percent.

In June last year, when the country was still in the thick of the pandemic, Kamal was gunning for an 8.2 percent GDP growth in fiscal 2020-21. But the prime minister in January this year revised down the growth forecast to 7.2 percent.

All sectors registered growth, according to Kamal.

"Exports have recovered and there is a healthy growth."

In the first 10 months of the fiscal year, exports brought home $32.1 billion, up 8.7 percent year-on-year, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau.

"When the pandemic began, experts said our remittance would drop off. 'You will get it for 1-2 months and nothing during the pandemic -- all your labour has come back home.' But our remittance is surging -- there is 40 percent growth rate, still."

Between July last year and April this year, expatriate Bangladeshis sent home $20.7 billion, up 39 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the Bangladesh Bank.

Asked if the government should keep a higher allocation for the struggling migrant workers in the budget for fiscal 2021-22, he remained elusive.

"The government does a lot for migrant workers -- we bring them back to Bangladesh when they are in trouble and we provide support to the returning migrant workers. We also provide a 2 percent cash incentive on remittance, which is no small amount."

Revenue collection grew 11.8 percent in the 10 months to April, according to Kamal.

As of April, the tax authority collected Tk 197,583.4 crore, up 12.9 percent year-on-year, according to data from the National Board of Revenue.

"And revenue generation is the hardest. Imagine how big the collections would be in May and June."

Both the agriculture and manufacturing sectors logged in growth.

"There is growth everywhere, so why would the GDP growth not be decent?"

Inflation too has been reasonable, according to Kamal, who would be presenting his third budget in the parliament on June 3.

"We have managed to keep it within 5-5.5 percent."

There is no country in the world whose exchange rate has been stable for ten years, he said.

"Our exchange rate has been stable for a long, long time. Our current account was negative for a long time. Now it is positive by $125 million. The financial account is positive. Our stock market is the most vibrant in Asia and Southeast Asia. Please show me a sounder economy."

And what works in favour of the Bangladesh economy is its limited global exposure, according to Kamal.

"Everyone around the world is facing more or less the same challenges. But the uncertainty in our economy is less -- the external factors can't harm us too much. We don't have too much foreign investment, not in the stock market, not in the bond market, not in the banking or financial sectors."