28 million more years of life lost than expected in 31 countries last year: Study

Over 28 million more years of life were lost than expected in the year 2020 in 31 upper-middle and high-income countries, according to a study done to understand the impact of Covid-19.

The study published by British Medical Journal (BMJ) today was conducted on 37 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the US.

Except for Taiwan, New Zealand, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and South Korea, all other countries examined had more premature deaths in 2020 than estimated, reveals the study conducted by an international team of researchers, led by Dr Nazrul Islam from the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford.

In these 31 countries more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million more than expected.

Premature death rate was higher in men than women in these countries. Years of life lost in men were 17.3 million and 10.8 million in women, the study shows.

The highest rates of excess premature deaths were in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US.

Years of life lost (YLL) measures both the number of deaths and the age at which it occurs, making it a more detailed assessment of Covid-19's impact on populations.

Understanding the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic requires not only counting excess deaths (difference between observed and expected numbers of deaths from all causes), but also analysing how premature those deaths are.

The researchers compared the observed life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 with those that would be expected based on historical trends in 2005-19 in the 37 countries.

Between 2005 and 2019, life expectancy at birth increased in both men and women in all the countries studied.

In 2020, only in New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway of the 37 countries studied, showed gain in life expectancy. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea.

The researchers acknowledge some limitations of their study. For example, lack of data did not let them include most countries from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. They were also unable to take account of other critically important factors, such as socioeconomic status, regional disparities, and race or ethnicity.

However, the findings are largely in line with previous studies, and their use of authoritative national mortality data, together with a validated analytical approach, suggest that the results are robust.