Control of US Senate hinges on 4 races

But what he probably didn't have in mind was a stumble-marred race that is so close his party recently felt obliged to pay for $1.4 million in television ads to safeguard a seat long thought safe.

Allen's attempt to hold off Democratic challenger Jim Webb is one of four races that strategists in both parties say will likely settle the overall battle for Senate control. In a reflection of the stakes, the two parties will spend more than $20 million combined on television in the campaign's final two weeks in Tennessee, Missouri, New Jersey and Virginia, a lineup that could not have been forecast even a few weeks ago.

"A year ago the focus was on the more traditionally competitive states like Pennsylvania and Ohio," Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, head of the Democratic campaign effort, said recently, referring to two races where Democrats appear likeliest to defeat Republican incumbents.

"It is a tougher (election) cycle for Republicans," agreed Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, head of the GOP campaign arm.

Democrats must gain six seats to win control, and have strong leads in Rhode Island and Montana as well as Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Strategists in both parties calculated long ago that Missouri's race would be close, with state auditor Claire McCaskill challenging first-term Sen. Jim Talent. With a statewide initiative on the ballot, it's also been clear for months that the issue of embryonic stem cell research would figure prominently. Talent opposes the expansion of federally funded efforts in a field that scientists say holds promise for the treatment of many diseases.

Controversy flared after McCaskill's campaign aired a television commercial in which actor Michael J. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease, exhibited the uncontrollable shaking that is symptomatic of the illness.

"They say all politics is local, but it's not always the case. What you do in Missouri matters to millions of Americans Americans like me," Fox says in the ad.

Tennessee seemed an unlikely place for a pivotal race, but GOP strategists say Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr., hoping to become the first black elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction, has proven to be an excellent candidate.