Saudi Arabia sets stage for younger rulers

A royal decree on Friday announced the setting up of the Allegiance Institution, a panel of 19 sons and 13 grandsons of late King Abdul-Aziz al-Saud, founder of modern Saudi Arabia and father of King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan.

The panel, among other roles, will vote in secret ballots on the eligibility of future kings and crown princes. It was the first step by the 74-year old al-Saud monarchy to formalise a hitherto traditional succession process. The new system will take effect after the current crown prince becomes king.

Analysts say the move was aimed at ensuring stability when the succession moves from Abdul-Aziz's sons -- the youngest of whom are believed to be in their 60s -- to his grandsons.

King Abdullah, the fifth son of Abdul-Aziz to rule Saudi Arabia, was at least 80 when he became king last year and Crown Prince Sultan is at least 78.

"It's a positive and long overdue step," said Khalid Al-Dakhil, professor of political sociology at King Saud University.

"Succession is the most critical issue for the continuity of a political system... The decree fulfils a constitutional void after the leadership realised that the new generation of rulers will need a more sophisticated mechanism," Dakhil added.

Stability within the royal court is crucial for the future of the house of Saud, which has managed to tame a campaign led by al-Qaeda sympathisers angered by the monarchy's close ties with the United States.

"They have realised that the major threat to their rule now is infighting," a Riyadh-based Western diplomat said. He noted that an earlier Saudi state was brought down in the middle of the 19th century by conflict over leadership.

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Up to now, only the king could name the crown prince but Western diplomats say such decisions were often agreed upon within the royal circle.

But as the sons of Abdul-Aziz grow older, and given the large and still growing number of his grandsons, the monarchy had to come up with a more formal succession system.

"It (the decree) opens the door for Abdul-Aziz's grandsons. It sets up a platform and mechanisms to avoid infighting over power, which ... is more probable among the grandsons than among the sons of Abdul-Aziz," said Mai Yamani, a London-based Saudi political analyst.

"This is the only country in the world where you are considered young when you are 60," Yamani said.

Although the new system gives younger princes influence over the succession, diplomats say two of Abdullah's elderly brothers -- Interior Minister Prince Nayef and Riyadh governor Prince Salman -- still consider themselves strong candidates to rule.

There are no exact figures on the number of Saudi princes but diplomats estimate there are up to 6,000. King Abdullah is believed to have 20 sons and daughters.

The decree also provides for setting up a medical commission, spearheaded by the Allegiance Institution, to decide on the eligibility of a ruling king or the crown prince.

"This is quite a major and sensible development ... It will build up the influence of the younger generations," a Western diplomat said.

"Many of (Abdul-Aziz's) sons are getting older and older, so the risk of another prolonged medical crisis as happened with (late) King Fahd becomes higher," he added.

Abdullah's predecessor, King Fahd, suffered a disabling stroke which left him little more than a titular monarch for nearly a decade before his death last year.

"There will be a bigger and increasing number of younger princes involved in this so it will bring a broader range of perspectives to be considered ... other than the age," the diplomat said.