With Sri Lanka talks off, what hope peace?

The Tigers said on Saturday they would not go to talks -- postponed once already -- that were scheduled in Geneva for April 24-25, due to problems with a requested safe-conduct transport of rebel commanders.

If making transport arrangements for a Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) huddle ahead of the Geneva meeting was this hard, then the talks themselves could hardly be expected to be productive, diplomats said.

But they would at least be talking.

At least 65 people have died over the past 10 days in the worst violence since a 2002 truce, with neither the government nor the Tigers showing enough flexibility for the talks to take place in Geneva as planned, one diplomat said.

"There are various things that could be done that would not be very difficult that would allow the talks to take place," the diplomat said. "But neither side is willing to allow them."

Without the talks as a safety valve, ambushes against Sri Lanka's military and ethnic riots in the island's northeast are expected to escalate further.

Some experts fear that could even include attacks within the capital Colombo, which would wreck investor confidence in the $20 billion (11 billion pound) economy.

RETURN TO CIVIL WAR?

Opinions are divided over whether more violence would inevitably lead to a resumption of the island's civil war, which has killed more than 64,000 people on both sides.

"The bottom line is this -- for how long can the military remain restrained?" said Janes Defence Weekly analyst Iqbal Athas. "That we are just around the corner from a major confrontation is not in doubt."

The government has repeatedly said it will not start the war with any offensive of its own. Some diplomats believe neither side could win a war and so neither side will start one.

But with both sides saying they could win if war was forced upon them, others fear that escalation could rapidly turn into a full-on conflict in the north and east that could devastate communities also hit by the 2004 tsunami.

The rebels are estimated to have some 10,000-20,000 fighters, attack boats and several light aircraft, as well as troops of suicide bombers -- much smaller than the military, but seen as a formidable adversary.

The Tigers, who want a separate homeland for ethnic Tamils, deny responsibility for the recent series of ambushes, but few analysts or diplomats believe them.

It is the second time such attacks have pushed the island to the brink of war this year -- the last was before the first round of talks was agreed. Some see them as a form of bloody brinkmanship and expect the meeting to eventually happen.

The rebels demand the government rein in and disarm a renegade group of ex-rebels led by former Tiger eastern commander Karuna Amman, who the LTTE say are now operating as army-backed paramilitaries and attacking the mainstream rebels.

OR PLAYING TOUGH?

The government agreed at the first round of talks in Geneva to stop armed groups using its territory, but now says it cannot find any to disarm -- a line that has upset the Tigers.

"I just see this as the LTTE playing tough," said analyst Rohan Edrisinha at the Centre for Policy Alternatives.

"The immediate goal of the LTTE is to see that the government does something to rein in or restrain Karuna's forces and they are going to use the threat of postponing the talks."

But for now, the talks remain off. The rebels say they will not go until they can meet with their eastern commanders, and the government is preventing them from being transported to the Tiger headquarters.

A convoy escorted by the unarmed Nordic-staffed Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) was due to move the rebels by land and sea on Saturday, but the rebels cancelled at the last minute saying naval patrol boats were watching too closely.

Diplomats say the government could take the initiative from the rebels by agreeing to take the eastern commanders by helicopter.

But the suspected Tiger ambushes are seen as strengthening the hand of President Mahinda Rajapakse's hardline Buddhist and Marxist allies, who oppose any concessions to the rebels.

Rajapakse owes his election to a Tiger boycott that kept away Tamil voters seen as likely supporters of his more conciliatory opponent. At the time, some analysts took that as a sign the rebels might have judged they were gaining too little from peace.