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Pakistan decides

13 May 2013, 18:00 PM
UPDATED 13 May 2013, 20:47 PM
STRATEGIC ISSUES
By Mahmood Hasan
13 May 2013, 18:00 PM
UPDATED 13 May 2013, 20:47 PM

op01EIGHTY six million voters went to polls to elect the National Assembly of Pakistan on May 11. All interest was focused on Pakistan to see whether the elections could be held at all and who wins.

Results from 267 constituencies show that Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) was leading with 132 seats. Amazingly, cricketer Imran Khan's new party Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is in second position with 35 seats. PPP has, so far, won only 32 seats. Pakistan's National Assembly has 342 seats of which 272 are directly elected. The remaining 70 seats for women and non-Muslims are allocated to the parties based on their performance. Thus, to win absolute majority PML-N will need 137 seats. Clearly, Nawaz Sharif (63), leader of centre-right PML-N is set to become prime minister of Pakistan for the third time after 14 years. Opinion polls suggest PML-N will get support from independent members to achieve absolute majority and lead the government. To recall, it was under Nawaz Sharif that Pakistan emerged as a Nuclear- Weapon-State in May 1998. Later, in a dramatic chain of events, Sharif was ousted in October 1999 in a coup led by General Pervez Musharraf. Sharif was tried for treason and jailed, but was released and exiled to Saudi Arabia in December 2000. He returned in 2007 and his party contested the 2008 elections. The Bhutto-Zardari family dominated centre-left Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by Raja Pervaiz Ashraf completed its five-year mandate last March. A caretaker government led by Mir Hazar Khan Khoso was inducted on March 25 to oversee the elections. PPP lost the elections miserably. The reasons for their debacle is not far to seek. Pervasive corruption, rise of fundamentalism, Taliban related terrorism, inept handling of Osama bin Laden's killing, US drone attacks in FATA, economic doldrums, ate into the credibility of the Zardari supervised PPP-government. What is startling is the rise of Imran Khan's centrist PTI. Khan put up a spirited fight and is likely to lead the opposition. His meteoric rise can be explained by his claim to a "new style of politics," where he calls for a massive "overhaul of status quo politics" and "VIP culture" of politics in Pakistan. The most pitiful episode was the banning of Musharrraf's attempt to get into politics. He returned to Pakistan after long self-exile in London only to be hounded by the vindictive judiciary. Was it not Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry who was driven out by Musharraf from his position in November 2007? Musharraf's "All Pakistan Muslim League" met a dead-end when the High Court in Peshawar banned him from politics for life. Now, with an unforgiving Nawaz Sharif coming back to power, Musharraf is indeed "In the Line of Fire." Sharif's win has been welcomed by Manmohan Singh. Nawaz Sharif's platter will be full. He has to deal with militancy, the restless generals, Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan, revitalising the economy, curbing corruption to restore credibility of the government, and above all restoring ties with US and India. Despite all the violence democracy seems to be taking roots. The caretaker government supervised credible election and peaceful transfer of power is a significant achievement for nuclear-armed Pakistan. ...................................................................... The writer is a former ambassador and  secretary.

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