What’s next for Ukraine?

The recent Russian advances in the Donbas lead to an inevitable question: whether the indiscriminate tactics the Kremlin deployed there will be a template for future offensives.

With reports of large numbers of troops, artillery and rocket launchers mustering across the border near the Russian city of Kursk – in an area that borders Ukraine's Sumy province – it is an urgent issue.

While other parts of the 300-mile frontline in Ukraine's east lack some of the same vulnerabilities that existed around Severodonetsk – which sat in the midst of a Ukrainian salient that Russia exploited – in any future offensive the Kremlin is likely to offer Kyiv the same hard choices, attempting to stretch its ability to respond.

Perhaps the first and most pressing issue – if and when Russian forces fully take Severodonetsk – is whether they then attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River.

Whether or not Russian forces attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River – a natural barrier – at Severodonetsk or elsewhere within Ukraine, Russian forces appear to be preparing for a fresh push farther north amid evidence that they are regrouping near the Ukrainian town of Izium to renew their stalled efforts against Slovyansk, rebuilding a railway bridge near Kupyansk to facilitate the movement of troops and equipment to the area.

What is more difficult to assess is the level of attrition inflicted on both sides, and what impact that will have on further offensives and Ukraine's ability to defend and counterattack.

While the UK's Ministry of Defence has made much of Russian losses throughout the war, Russian gains in the Donbas appear to tell a different story, for now at least. Increasing anecdotal evidence suggests that Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties during recent fighting in the east, largely from shrapnel, and there are reports of equipment and supply issues.

What may well be true is that despite evidence of fresh Russian preparations, the difficulty of the fighting and heavy losses may limit Russia's ambitions beyond controlling the Donbas, the south and its key coastline.

But only time will tell if Moscow is looking beyond Donbas. But most analysts say despite a shift in momentum, the war will be a long one.