Bangladesh power scenario

By S.A. Mansoor, Director, Engineering, Partex Group
25 July 2006, 18:00 PM
In any under developed country like Bangladesh, the demand for electricity is expected to go up at a compound rate of may be 10 percent per annum. If the demand for power today is 4,000 MW then by 2016 it should be 8,000 MW. Adding 20 percent operational power reserve we shall not be wrong to plan installations for at least additional 4,800 MW by 2018. Further, we need to replace at least half of our existing plants. Total demand including replacement could well be for 4,800+2,000 (replacement) which indicates additional 6,800 MW by 2016! Is there any long term planning for this? Or will we go on bickering between the BNP & the AL and let power demand go down the drain and only go for more power rationing? Cynics say the BNP stands for " Biddut Nai Party "! May be it should be "Bangladeshey Nai Power"; the way things are going today! It is unfortunate that the nation suffers, because of political bickering and we have no common agreed agenda beyond political in fighting!

There is a lot of talk going round about nuclear power generation as an option for Bangladesh. However, there are two main problems-- one is the capital cost per KW of installed nuclear based power, which is way above any other electrical generation process! Although today's nuclear reactors are much safer, they are still very complex and dangerous equipments to handle; even potentially disastrous compared to conventional power plants. Safety is the next most important problem that has a serious impact for nuclear power plants.

Further, technical discipline and safety standards in nuclear power plant operation are extremely high. It is much higher than even the standards in civil aviation! Also the extra investment for reactor containment and safety installation's redundancy and spare fail--safe auxiliary capabilities make a nuclear power plant very capital intensive! We may consider the CANDU route, developed by Canadian atomic energy authorities based on natural uranium as fuel or the pebblebed South African design. Both are considered to be safer options. However investment for a 500 MW plant could be well in excess of US$ 700 million plus today. Additional local currency cost of over Taka 150 crore for auxiliaries, switchgear, and infrastructure and safety protocol is needed. Where do we get this sort of funds, leaving aside the cost of technology transfer and training expenses?

The cost will not be proportionally lower for a small plant. Even a 100 MW nuclear power plant may cost over 60% of the 500 MW set up! The technology transfer and training cost may come to another Tk. 20 crores or more for either size. Further the import of nuclear fuel is a costly and fundamentally a political issue that has no easy solution. The safeguards for procuring nuclear fuel for a small country like Bangladesh could be complicated with various financial and other political guarantees that may not be possible to provide.

Considering these important factors I believe the nuclear option could be looked at may be twenty years from now if we can maintain steady positive economic growth, which is already stumbling for lack of power!

Gas and coal are our only potential hydrocarbon fuel source, and improved and efficient proven combined cycle thermal power plant the only way to go. Our emphasis should be on energy conservation and maximising the use of renewable energy sources. All efforts should be mobilised and operated on war footing to harness wherever possible wind, sunlight and waterpower sources. The investment cost may be high, but there is tremendous gain in life term operating cost. We should go all out for bio-fuels and power from municipal waste. Proven process for power generation with this fuel is available, and we need not reinvent the wheel.