CCC elections

In the CCC election analysis, we tend to forget that 1994 and 2005 are different times. After 11 years, the number of voters has increased. Judging by the 1994 voting results, one could think that inclusion of the Jamaat's votes would fill the gap between Mohiuddin and Nasir. In 1994 the Jamaat had 8% of the total votes. There was no guarantee that the Jamaat's vote would remain the same or increase in 2005. It might have decreased also. So it was not correct to predict the 2005 results using the 1994 data.

The Jamaat-BNP combination was invincible in the 2001 national elections. It may not be the same in 2007 elections since the number of voters will increase and the new voters' attitude may be different. At Gazipur in 2001, Ahsanullah Master defeated Hasan Sarker only because of the participation of rebel BNP candidate Abdul Mannan. In the same constituency in 2004, Ahsanullah Master's son defeated Abdul Mannan by a bigger margin even though there was no rebel BNP man at that time. Again the prediction was wrong!