Flood damage estimate controversy

By Mahmud Hasan Circular Road, Dhaka
21 October 2004, 18:00 PM
My attention has been drawn to the recent debate in the country as regards the assessment of the damage caused by the floods this year. The debate originated because of the wide variation in the assessment presented by the Flood and Disaster Management Ministry that was corroborated by the UNDP in its global appeal for aid (damage estimated to be around Tk 43 thousand crore), and the one made by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in its Rapid Assessment of Flood 2004 (between Tk 11.4 thousand to 15 thousand crore). The debate around the flood damage estimate that we have seen over the past few weeks could serve as a very good case study of how politicians, donors, experts and also the media tend to react when 'conventional wisdom' is challenged by the civil society actors.

I have followed this debate very closely, and I am somewhat bemused and also frustrated by the way the discourse has evolved. Now that the World Bank ADB Joint Mission has come out with its own damage estimate (to the tune of about Tk 13,000 crore), which is close to CPD's damage assessment, it is interesting to see how these various actors have reacted to the changed scenario.

It is also instructive to recollect the performance of the Food and Disaster Management Ministry which had trashed CPD's estimates at the time without having any clue about what it was talking about and caused some embarrassment to the government. The finance minister disassociated himself from both the Disaster Management Ministry and the UNDP, and the international auction of Bangladesh's misery in the name of Flash Flood Appeal. The UNDP Resident Representative, who castigated CPD as a 'downtown outfit, with people sitting in air-conditioned rooms', and boasted about the in-depth assessment exercise that had supposedly informed GOB/UNDP estimate, has found it convenient to keep mum this time around.

The same experts who expressed doubts about CPD's estimates are now telling us that "assessment of damage is not important, what is important is rehabilitation!

There is a lesson to learn from all of this, for all of us isn't it?