Global leadership

The expected solutions in Afghanistan and Iraq are not in sight. Now the US dollar is weakening as a global currency. It is the beginning of new problems for the US and the foreign users. The Euro is not working as expected; and the price of energy (oil) has almost doubled, and there is no solution in sight.

The US is keen to control the energy sources anywhere in the world; and the Muslim majority oil producing countries are under close watch. The rich CIS zone needs sea outlets via Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan; and, and, behold, Uncle Sam is waving his beard there!

About USD seven billions investment is involved in cross-country oil pipelines for the proposed pipe link between Iran and India in Pakistan and Afghanistan; and between Myanmar and India via Bangladesh. Iran is already on the Western hit list; and Dhaka cannot unshackle the US interest to make Bangladesh a base for more than one reason (Pakistan and India are in the US camp already).

The adverse publicity on BD in the US has already been started in the NY Times. The timing is significant, when terrorist activities are being increased in Bangladesh by vested/hired groups. The violence rental business is booming!

The regime in Dhaka is cornering itself through non-transparencies in hot issues like the alleged activities of the so called Bangla Bhai and the underground activities of some of the religious fundamentalist groups. Today the Islamic world is facing a crisis of identity; and OIC is still born (too much disparity in prosperity levels amongst the members, plus huge communication gaps, regardless of the religious bond). The top Islamic leadership, if any, is a sad spectacle.

At the regional levels, the political leaders are sitting like lame ducks. The non-activity is enormous! Reason? Lack of internal discipline, major vision, and cooperative attitude. The exporters prefer dumping goods into exposed market exporting baskets, without diversification exercises, first on paper, then through pilot projects; ignoring regional markets and HR. Tradition and conservative attitude are still major weak points in leadership in the third world countries.

This is not encouraged by the majority of people living at or around poverty levels. Politics has become a source of business, explaining the sharp rise in corrupt practices in the emerging nations. The major adverse repercussions are being denied by the regimes in power, but the local citizens are aware of the undercurrents playing havoc with cosmetic development projects, where a large percentage of the funds are diverted into unofficial and private channels. Politics has become inward-looking, in self-security exercises.

How religion has entered the political scene, confounding the secularists; after the collapse of communism in the vast USSR. It is not difficult to understand the swing to religious outlets, after the failure of democracy in the poor countries, and the concentration of wealth in the hands of the minority rich barons in the developed societies. The latter are now passing through sunset years of decline, and the trend is NOT going to reverse.

The wave of civilization shifts from the East to the West, and then from the West to the East. There are no options.

The political regimes have to be flexible in their policies, as rigidities create cracks in the system. The cracks are ignored at close range, but very much visible on telescopes. That is the political quiz: smug politics is out in Dhaka or in Washington.