The India question

There is no denying the assumption that India covets the huge Bangladeshi market; and would also like to control the NE Indian market, and deny it to Bangladeshi goods, which might be cheaper, considering the long route from mainland India. Bangladesh is developing fast in the SME sector, and already exporting new products to many developing countries (medicines and consumer goods).

Tata has already gained a foothold in Bangladesh. Its long-term implications are many, and the study needs expert analysis. Now another US firm might invest USD 1.5 billion in the coal and organic fertiliser industries.

Another suspect area is the huge smuggling from India. It is alarming to note the huge disparity (about a billion dollars) between the official trade between the two countries. Where is the sign of the thaw?

India needs short fast land routes for maintaining security in troubled NE India, far away from New Delhi. One solution is the availability of land and rail transit through Bangladesh. The question is: what about BD exports to India? The heavy motor vehicle market is already in Indian hands. Many Bangladeshi importers feel tempted to import fast-selling Indian products.

In the commentary, India's "big-brother" attitude has been skipped. It is very much there, specially when a particular political party is not in power in Dhaka. India appears to be very much sensitive to 'non-secular' governance in Dhaka, although the Hindu-Muslim relation in India is still a sensitive issue (in the background) in huge India (population of a billion, with more than 100m Muslims).

The British went away with some smug satisfaction after partitioning British India in 1947. Now this South Asia peninsula is reaping the troublesome harvest for half a century, without arriving at amicable solutions.

Now India and Pakistan are in the US camp; hence Dhaka has to prepare strategies to face this darkening cloud, along with the mosquito bites (diplomatic headaches) from NE India. China and Myanmar are interested in Bangladesh, and are craving for pieces of the pie. The relation between West Bengal (India) and New Delhi have to be watched for long-tern developments, indirectly affecting Dhaka, positive or negatively.

The side-tracking of Bangladesh is a myth--the strategic location is too obvious to be ignored by the global and regional powers, specially when the country is "floating" on huge energy reserves and surplus human resources. The sagging ASEAN nations are making a bee-line for Bangladesh (outsourcing and transfer).

Debates in Dhaka on India will never end; because the neighbour is too close and too big. It is a politically sensitive issue.