Post-Sharon Israel

By Shaik Ubaid, On e-mail
17 January 2006, 18:00 PM
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel is still in a critical state after suffering a massive stroke. Mr. Sharon will not return to normal life even if he survives. This has serious ramifications for the Middle East and the world. Sharon had completely changed the political scene of Israel by breaking away from the hard line Likud Party that he had founded to recently form a new party-- Kadima. That leaves the Israeli politics in a state of flux. Mr. Bush, who was a big supporter of Sharon, must be worried about the uncertainty his removal from the Mid East scene creates. Palestinian President Abbas has lost control not only of Palestinian government but also of his own group Fatah. The militant wing of Fatah, The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, is in open rebellion, while the militant Islamic group Hamas is trying to tone down its militancy and is gaining ascendancy.

When Sharon vacated Gaza it was not because he had a change of heart and became a dove. He believed that unilaterally separating from Palestinians after permanently annexing vast areas of West Bank and Golan Heights was the only way of guaranteeing Israel's existence as a Jewish state. This stand would never have led to permanent solution. Sharon's removal from the political scene helps the peace process in the long run.

In the imminent future we might see an interim leader such as Ehud Olmert or Amir Peretz of Labour or even Benjamin Netanyahu coming to power at the head of a coalition government. But soon we might see that, instead of hardliner Nethanyahu who is considered an opportunist, or the inexperienced Peretz, former prime minister Ehud Barak may gain ascendancy. Peretz has been trying to sideline Barak in the party, but only a trusted general who is interested in genuine compromise can fill the void created by Sharon's departure.

Barak may not insist on annexation of large areas of the West Bank and may resume negotiations with Syria. Syria itself may see a more representative if not a democratic government. The winds of democracy are sure to gust stronger in the other Arab countries. The corrupt old guard of the Fatah is on the way out and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and Hamas will have to undergo a moderation metamorphosis a la the PLO into becoming political parties acceptable to the pragmatist leadership in Israel and the US. After the next presidential elections neo-conservatives, who are the biggest supporters of hardline policies of Likud are likely to lose their clout in the US.

Israel and Palestine started their modern history of coexistence from hardline positions. For 2000 years, the Jews had suffered the worst persecution at the hands of the Europeans and always dreamt of returning to the land that they believe God gave them for exclusive use. Around the 1890s, when the Zionist movement was founded, the European Jews became powerful enough to influence the imperial and colonial powers in Europe. But they never trusted the European powers and they were proved right when they were almost wiped off the face of Europe by Hitler. The matter of restarting their saga in Palestine was no longer a matter of dream for them but became a necessity for survival.

But in their religious zeal and struggle for survival, they did not realise that Palestinians, some of whom claimed ancestry to the people of Canaan, whose presence predates the arrival of the Hebrews in Palestine, would see them as colonisers, especially as the Jewish immigrants and militants had the support of the colonial occupiers. Many Zionists, not only wished that the Palestinians would just disappear; they forced the Palestinians out through terrorism, expulsions, massacres and wars. For a hundred years, the Zionist movement and the Israeli government denied the very existence of Palestinian people. Millions of Palestinians still live in camps dreaming of one day returning to their homeland.

Israelis and Palestinians now must do what they have done through the last century: that is let history take its course. Just like war and violence was a natural phenomenon when the two groups competed for the land, eventual compromise and settling down in peaceful cohabitation is a natural consequence of such struggles.

Just as the great and noble Salahuddin made a deal with the Crusaders accepting to share the land between the two kingdoms, Arabs and Israelis must do the same. A just and permanent solution of the Middle East conflict coupled with the advent of representative governments in the region will send Al-Qaeda into a coma. This will also remove the impediment in close cooperation between the Jewish and Muslim communities in the US, giving much needed boost to the civil rights movement to strengthen American pluralism that are under an onslaught from the rightwing extremists in the US.

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Everyone living in the streets of Palestine sees him as an opponent in wrestling matches, which they are fighting for decades. Some may see him as the "war-hero," and to few "a man of peace," but to him, his name Ariel Sharon is the only thing needed for an introduction.

Ariel Sharon achieved dignity from the Israelis, the Jews, becoming a hard-rock army man and later as a political leader, but for any person it is hard to judge whether he has more virtues than sins. Analysing his military and political career, no one can blame him for not loving Israeli, or for not taking steps to secure it. But now he is fighting with something that does not need any political experience or social skills. After leaving the Likud Party, he formed Kadima, which means forward. It's awful to say, but the man who did not move forward while being prime minister, and fenced Arafat for years, has walked so much distance that he now cannot move back.

Tahsin Hyder, Dhanmondi, Dhaka