Procrastination on Tata

By M Islam, Houston, Texas, USA
16 July 2006, 18:00 PM
Thanks to our Government's indecision (to put it mildly!), Tata has now decided to shelve its massive investment plan in Bangladesh. If that had gone ahead, it would have given the people of Bangladesh a power plant representing approximately 40% of current production, a fertiliser plant that would have taken the country closer to self sufficiency and a steel plant that would have reduced our expenditure on imports all utilising our own natural gas. Understandably Tata, for that matter any other investor, wanted a timely decision. Unfortunately the Government of Bangladesh did not provide that. Statement like, "we think this is a good proposal, but we have a general election coming," does not bode well for Tata or any other would-be investor. The government should have taken the decision based on the enormous good this would have brought to Bangladesh and not on the perceived negative effect on their party's chances in the upcoming election.

Tata, in its revised proposal, offered a very good gas price. It also proposed 10% equity to the Government of Bangladesh. Some "so called" experts in Bangladesh ridiculed Tata's proposed gas price of $2-$4/MSCF incorrectly, stating that the world market price is $5-$10/MSCF. If they have bothered to do some research they would have noted that investors are building their plants in countries in the Middle East, South America, North Africa etc. where the gas price varies anywhere from $0.50 to $1.8/MSCF.

Yes, the gas price in North America is at present close to $6/MSCF, however, investors are not rushing in to build plants where it requires substantial amount of gas and when the end product can be imported much cheaper. A lot of natural gas based plants are being shutdown in North America and the investors are moving to locations where the gas price is lower. Tata also wanted gas supply guarantee. That is not an unusual demand. Any investor would like a guarantee of feedstock before it invested huge (or any) amount of money. A plant without feedstock will not bring in any cash flow. A 15-20 year gas supply guarantee is an industry norm. Another excuse from the government was that, "we do not have the expertise to enter into and conclude contract negotiations that quickly". Have we really tried? Do we not have that expertise within our 140 million population? If not, did we really seek outside help, including among non-resident Bangladeshis? Another excuse was, "we need to discuss with the Opposition". Fair point, however, why did we not initiate that earlier? If we genuinely believed that it was a good offer, shouldn't we have been proactive rather than procrastinate? If this investment did go ahead, would this not bring more FDI? Isn't that the goal of the BoI and Government of Bangladesh? If this was a "good offer" why was it let go?

In a country where there is gas but an acute shortage of power that is hampering economic development and quality of life, where there is shortage of fertilisers that the farmers desperately need and deserve and a steel plant that would reduce imports, Tata's plan was godsend. However, as usual, those people who have been given the power to change lives of ordinary Bangladeshis for the better, once again failed them. Our political leaders do not seem to comprehend that if ordinary people feel that they (our beloved leaders) are doing well for the country their victory is assured. I hope that it is not too late to reverse Tata decision. Tata's plants will not only effectively monetise our natural gas; it will directly and indirectly improve quality of lives of Bangladeshis.