From 2001 to 2006

The honour accorded to Professor Yunus and his Grameen Bank makes the Bangladeshi nation proud. In the local media, however, the event was well summed up: "Another victory for Bangladeshi nation, after the liberation war in 1971." Good for you Professor Yunus. We wish you a long and healthy life.

For such an emotion-choked nation, I wonder, is it the right moment to dwell on politics? However, the dust will settle soon and the nation has to go back to its original position of anxiety and chaos of the present mess. There appears an air of optimism surrounding the never-ending dialogue between the two arch-rivals, Abdul Jalil and Manna Bhuiya. Once again, the election season is upon us. In this piece my aim is to compare the present season with that of 2001.

In all democracies, rich and poor, holding general elections successfully is one of the major prerequisites for a meaningful democracy. More importantly, both the incumbent government and the opposition parties during the election year take extreme care in engaging with the electorate.

In the election year, in particular, the performance of the incumbent government comes under sever scrutiny by the voters. This is why, in all the mature democracies, the incumbent tries not to mess around with the people, but tries to bribe them either by providing financial incentives with tax cuts or making provisions for other kinds of election-winning sweeteners.

In Bangladesh, however, the experience has been quite the opposite. In 2001, AL was in government and this year BNP-led alliance is in power.

On both the occasions, the incumbent governments seemed indifferent as regards making the voters happy. On the contrary, they had been found to be more interested in self-indulgence. In being so, surprisingly, there have been more differences than similarities between the 2001 and 2006 election seasons, in terms of devising new strategies for robbing people.

Similarities
In 2001, the AL government, in spite of having numerous achievements under its belt, suffered a severe blow in the election for failing on the law and order front. The most important among them was a sudden rise of Islamic fundamentalist activities, for example, Udichi bombing in Jessore, bombing of CPB meeting at Paltan, bombing at Narayangonj office of the AL, and bombing at Ramna botomul on the morning of Pahela Baishak (Bengali new year). All the achievements on the economic front were wiped out in the 2001 election season because of their failure to control law and order.

This year (election season again), the BNP-led alliance government, having some achievements initially in the area of environment (eradicating poly bags from the market and introducing CNG-driven three wheelers in Dhaka city), they have miserably failed to control the price hike of essential goods and services and have also failed to provide adequate power supply to the nation. Whatever achievements they could boast of on the environmental front have been cancelled out by their failure in the kitchen market and failure in providing power.

Differences
A piece by Nazim Kamran Chowdhury in 2001 predicted that the incumbent AL government would lose the next election with a huge margin against then newly formed 4-party alliance led by the BNP. Subsequently, the prediction of Mr. Choudhury came true. The BNP-led alliance enjoyed a landslide victory in 2001 general election.

A recent piece by the same author (DS Oct 6) on the subject of poll prediction for the next general election has given birth to intense interest in the media. The prediction suggests that, out of the total population surveyed, less than half of the population has already made up their minds on voting for the next general election. The rest remains undecided. Out of the survey results, Mr Choudhury this time predicted a landslide win for the AL with more than180 seats. One wonders why.

People are pretty much unanimous in their view on at least four areas where the incumbent has failed although there were immense opportunities for progress during the last five years. These areas are: failure in controlling prices of essentials, rampant corruption in the government, alleged interference from outside (government within a government), extra-judicial killings, and last but not the least, the failure in executing the death penalty inflicted on the leaders and activists of the JMB.

The media (electronic and print) played an important role in influencing public opinion in 2001 general election. This happens in all democratic societies. The media rightly or wrongly support a party/alliance in the general election. In 2001, an influential section of the electronic media humiliated the AL government with a program called "Shabash Bangladesh."

Many commentators were of the opinion that this TV program was highly successful in influencing the voters in deciding against the then incumbent government led by the AL. In the case of print media, almost without exception the popular newspapers sided with the then BNP-led opposition in writing editorials and directed the voters to vote for the 4-party alliance to bring down then AL-led government.

This year, at this moment, it is too early to detect any such direction of the print media. However, one can guess from various editorials of the popular Bangla and English dailies in recent months that they are very disappointed in the incumbent with regard to the four issues mentioned above. It remains to be seen this time what kind of direction the popular newspapers have in store for the undecided voters.

Of course, there remains a key difference that is obvious in 2006 election season. It was once again widely believed that the government led by Sheikh Hasina (1996-2001) had appointed a neutral non-partisan eminent person as the head of the state. During the present regime led by Begum Zia, she appointed two presidents who were closely associated with her party (one of them was the founder secretary general of the BNP). Dr B Chowdhury, however, after becoming the president, wanted to be a neutral man with his newfound wisdom which the constitution desires. The rest of the story is well known. The present president was closely aligned with BNP politics in the past, but it remains to be seen what role he plays in the next election.

In conclusion, of course, the list of differences is longer than the similarities between the two governments. In fact, they both showed great hostility toward each other during their last year in power. In terms of differences, however, it remains to be seen what role the media and the president play during the rest of the election season.

Mr. Kamran Choudhury's survey suggests more than half of the voters at this stage are undecided. Certainly, this huge number of voters are likely to be the makers of the next government, if the election is held in a free and fair manner.

Finally, I must say that, in my opinion, it was wrong on the part of the media in 2001 to direct the voters to go for an alliance that comprises the Islamists and their goons for governing the nation. Certainly, the nation has had to pay a high price. I hope the media have the courage to recognize their mistakes. The observers are watching the media with great interest to assess what role they play this time in moulding people's perceptions and beliefs.

The author is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.