Bofors backfires, yatra fizzles

The latest poll, by The Week, estimates the NDA's score at 235-260 seats, clearly below the 273 "magic-mark". It gives the Congress and allies 170-200 seats.

The Congress's fortunes are looking up despite its policy confusions. Particularly disappointing is its economic "vision". This, sadly, claims that the Congress "pioneered" what the BJP is taking credit for -- 7liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation.

The Congress once rightly decried the BJP's obsession with GDP-without-equity and termed its 8 percent growth promise as "a mere dream". But now, it's itself promising 10 percent growth!

To be fair, the Congress focuses on the agrarian crisis, unemployment and job reservations even in the private sector. But that's not enough to project an alternative vision.

The Congress has scored many pluses. Rahul Gandhi's entry into election has drawn a near-rapturous public response. The Congress has also shown nimbleness in forging alliances, although that effort has suffered setbacks in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

It's attempting to project vigour and vivacity through young leaders. Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, Jyodiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Selja provide a fresh, youthful and earnest contrast to one-liner-savvy but cynical second-generation BJP leaders like Venkaiah Naidu, Narendra Modi, Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, and Uma Bharati.

The Congress's upturn and the hearty response to Ms Sonia Gandhi has unnerved the BJP. In UP, Messrs Vajpayee and Advani have failed to draw crowds. Even devotedly pro-BJP papers like The Pioneer admits this. Their meetings have been small in important towns, and downright embarrassing in Lucknow.

The NDA started with high-powered, slick campaigns like "India Shining". But these peaked early. In fact, the phrase "Shining" provokes anger in many parts of the country.

Devoid of issues, the NDA is clutching at "negative" planks -- "foreign origins", cow protection and Ayodhya. The "Vision 2004"'s function was to reaffirm the RSS's core-agendas, embrace corporate globalisation, and begin a viciously personal anti-Sonia campaign.

The latest plank is the Bofors "expose", based on the surmises of the Swedish policeman (Sten Lindstrom) who ran the Bofors investigation but failed to establish corruption charges.

Mr Lindstrom himself admits: "we were unable to establish the truth…" He has wantonly dragged in Ms Gandhi's name although it doesn't. figure in any Bofors-related documents. The "new" revelation was carried six years ago in The Indian Express and comes 13 years after the Swedish investigation was terminated.

It's ludicrous to level charges against Ms Gandhi without a remotely plausible rationale. The "exposé's" timing speaks for itself.

And yet, Mr Vajpayee has applied indirect coercion on the CBI by saying it will look into the "new" disclosures. This is unbecoming of the Prime Minister. BJP leaders have shed all pretence of being broad-minded.

Mr Vajpayee has rubbed shoulders with Ms Gandhi any number of times in Parliament and in official functions. He treated her as a "normal", legitimate, leader. But he has turned -- for opportunistic reasons.

Mr Advani also suffers from squint-eyed vision. On April 5, the BBC quoted him as saying that the anti-Babri Ayodhya campaign had "hurt" the BJP. It "should never have happened…" He also said that, absent the demolition, the BJP would have secured a majority in 1999.

But the very next day, Mr Advani said the temple issue boosted the BJP's fortunes: "where we have reached today is only due to the Ram temple".

It's impossible not to condemn contempt for truth. The NDA is willing to subvert the Constitutional guarantee of universal citizenship -- irrespective of ethnicity, caste, creed. This fundamental right to non-discrimination would become meaningless if citizens were to be divided according to place of birth.

Yet, the BJP celebrates each time a US, Canadian or British citizen of Indian origin is appointed to a public office.

The BJP's growing political anxieties are reproduced in the NDA. The Alliance is a shrunken image of what it was. Over 15 months, 10 parties have quit it. Month by month, it is looking more moth-eaten.

The release of its manifesto bore witness to this. Thirteen chairs were placed on the dais. One, marked for the Shiv Sena, remained empty. Of the remaining, the BJP occupied six and the JD(U) two, while one each was graced by the Nationalist Trinamool, Akali Dal, Biju Janata Dal and Indian Federal Democratic Party.

This corresponds to the NDA distribution of political power. The manifesto itself reflects the BJP's total hegemony. It was drafted entirely by the BJP and shown only to NDA convenor George Fernandes. Mr Fernandes claims he read out the relevant text to the other members.

That very day, some NDA members distanced themselves from controversial formulations, including Trinamool, Biju Janata Dal and Telugu Desam.

The BJP has imposed its Ayodhya line on its allies -- for the first time. This line is far from benign. It makes no reference to the Babri demolition, and relates the temple to "national integration".

But why should the temple have anything to do with "national integration" unless integration was menaced in the first place by the demolition? The manifesto says the issue should be resolved through a judicial verdict or "dialogue". Now, this amounts to subtle coercion of Muslims into agreeing to a temple -- without the mosque being mentioned.

An early court verdict is unlikely. And going by recent formulas (e.g. the Kanchi Shankaracharya's), a negotiated deal will be one-sided: a temple at the site of the razed mosque, in return for an assurance that Kashi and Mathura won't be targeted.

The BJP now treats its allies with disdain. It bullied them into accepting other policies too without discussion -- for instance, allowing foreign investment in retail trade.

Many NDA parties face a dire prospect in the coming elections. Barring regional-ethnic parties like the Akali Dal, TDP, AIADMK, most are likely to suffer an erosion of their vote and base.

Their ability to bargain with the BJP has drastically shrunk. The turning point was Gujarat, when they miserably failed to demand that Modi & Co. be brought to book. Today, they are paying capitulation's price.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.