Burma: UN visit raises hope

The NLD leader was in good health and spirits, Gambari told diplomats. She re-iterated her willingness to be part of a dialogue process with Burma's military leaders on the country's political future, he said.

The visit was arranged at the last minute, after the UN envoy met the regime's top leader Senior General Than Shwe and several other key generals, including the number two General Maung Aye and the Prime Minister Soe Win in the country's new capital Pyinmana, some four hundred kilometres north of Rangoon.

The visit was a concession to the UN envoy in the hope that it would help prevent Burma's being put on the Security Council. During their meeting with Gambari, the generals were primarily concerned about the UN Security Council discussing Burma, according to diplomats based in Rangoon.

Gambari told Burma's generals that his hands were tied and they would have to do something to convince the international community that they were serious about introducing democratic reform and respect human rights. He strongly suggested that the regime should immediately release some key political prisoners, especially the aging journalist Win Tin and the labour activist Su Su Nway.

Gambari is expected to brief the Security Council on his return to New York after reporting back to the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. The US is continuing to push the UN Security Council to review the situation in Burma as a matter of urgency. Last December the Council held a closed-door briefing on Burma, at which Gambari presented a very depressing view of the situation there.

Since then the junta has been pre-occupied with trying to prevent the UN Security Council discussing Burma. They have sought the support of both Beijing and Moscow -- two members of the permanent five council members with veto powers -- in their campaign to deflect the UN's interest. Both China and Russia have told Rangoon that they support Burma's position in principle but that the military regime should help them to defend them.

Behind the scenes the Chinese have been urging the junta to do more to engage the international community, according to a government official in Beijing. If you want us to support you at the UN then give the UN access, the Chinese have reportedly told Burma's top generals. Gambari's visit is even likely to have been the result of the Chinese government advice.

The envoy also raised the UN's concern about the new government restrictions on international organisations and UN agencies' activities, including the inability of the International Labour Organisation's representative in Rangoon to carry out his duties and the official interference that caused the International Committee of the Red Cross to stop their prison visits more than six months ago.

According to diplomats in Rangoon, Gambari also raised general human rights issues with the generals, including the recent crackdown on the NLD and the attacks on the ethnic rebels Karen that has caused more than ten thousand villagers to flee their homes.

"There is no doubt that the UN envoy's meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi was an important concession, but we will have to wait and see whether it's a sign of more to come," a western diplomat told The Daily Star. Asian diplomats were more optimistic and are confident that a serious dialogue between the military and the pro-democracy parties may now be in the offing.

Gambari and General Than Shwe reportedly did not directly discuss the issue of whether the UN could renew its facilitating role in the country's national reconciliation process.

The Secretary General's special envoy for Burma, the former Malaysian diplomat Razali Ismail resigned earlier this year in frustration after he had been continually denied access to Burma since early in March 2004. He had been a major go-between in the dialogue process between the generals and the opposition, the NLD, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the ethnic groups. He was also instrumental in Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest the last time she was detained in May 2002.

When Ali Alatas visited Burma last August -- as the SG's special envoy on UN reform and the millennium development goals, Than Shwe told him in no uncertain terms that Razali was no longer welcome in Burma because he was the regime regarded him as dishonest and unreliable.

Mr Razali tells us one thing and then tells the SG something totally different, Than Shwe told Ali Alatas, according to UN official who wanted to remain anonymous.

But since his last visit to Rangoon in 2004, it had been clear that the UN envoy was not going to be allowed back. Than Shwe believed Mr Razali was not impartial and was on the side of the lady -- a junta euphemism for Aung San Suu Kyi, according to a former senior Burmese military officer. Mr Razali was also seen as being too close to the former prime minister and intelligence chief, General Khin Nyunt who was purged in October 2004 and later given a suspended forty-four year jail sentence.

So far the UN has not replaced Razali and there are divided opinions within the UN whether he should be. In the wake of Gambari's visit, Kofi Annan will now have to decide whether it is worth replacing him at all.

Asian diplomats at the UN are very keen that a new special envoy is appointed, according to sources in New York. ASEAN in particular strongly support the former Philippines president Fidel Ramos.

"Fidel Ramos is the perfect candidate: he is Asian, he is a former general and military commander, he is a former head of state, and best of all he is several years senior to General Than Shwe," a senior South East Asian diplomat told the Daily Star on condition of anonymity.

But there are those in the UN who believe the envoy need not be an Asian. In fact Gambari told a senior colleague within the UN that he wanted the job himself. After his successful mission to Rangoon, he may be well placed to play a role in the future.

In the meantime though, the ball is in Rangoon's court. The generals now have to show their sincerity about opening up to the international community by laying-off the NLD, releasing key political prisoners and allowing more access for humanitarian aid, according to diplomats in Rangoon.

"There is a real danger that the envoy's visit was just another well-managed publicity coup to deflect international pressure and buy more time for the regime," said a Rangoon-based European diplomat.

Larry Jagan is an internationally renowned Burma specialist.