Can Dean win the Democratic party's nomination for president?

Howard Dean: How bright is the future?

"I am very proud and honoured to endorse Howard Dean to be the president of the United States," Gore told the press. His announcement came out of the blue and shocked the Democratic Party machine. No one was more stunned than Joe Lieberman, Gore's running mate in 2000. I "was caught completely off guard by the announcement," Lieberman complained. Gore claimed that he had called Lieberman's office and left a message, but Lieberman didn't return the call.

Gore's endorsement was a big surprise. After all, Dean is hardly running as an insider, and he and Gore don't seem to have much in common on many key issues. For example, Gore has been at odds with the National Rifle Association (NRA), while Dean has got along well with the gun lobby. Dean considered challenging Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2000, but the Vice President's camp reportedly pressured him to back off.

Dean then quietly lobbied to be Gore's running mate, but he never made the short-list.

So why did Gore endorse Dean? Several reasons, it appears. For one thing, sources close to Gore reveal that he has become increasingly angry about Bush's handling of the Iraq war, and he liked the fact that Dean was the only candidate who had the intestinal fortitude to oppose the war from the beginning.

In endorsing Dean, Gore noted that Dean "really is the only candidate who has been able to inspire at the grassroots level all over the country." That statement, of course, is true, evident by the fact that no Democratic candidate has raised as much money as quickly as Dean. Moreover, many Americans who strongly oppose Bush's misguided policy on Iraq are galvanising around Dean's campaign.

Gore is also concerned about the infighting and bickering among the candidates and what it will do to the party's chances in 2004. Let's unite and back Dean and not attack him, is Gore's message in backing Dean. "We don't have the luxury of fighting amongst ourselves to the point where we seriously damage our ability to win on behalf of the American people," Gore told the press before the presidential debate last December 9.

Further, Gore may also be distancing himself from Bill Clinton's big shadow by trying to stake out his own turf within the Democratic Party as a power broker. It's no secret that relations between Gore and Bill Clinton cooled after the 2000 elections over each man's performance in it.

In the wake of the election, Gore and Clinton reportedly had a showdown meeting where each was uncharacteristically blunt. Gore told Clinton that his sexual escapades were a major impediment to his campaign, while Clinton criticised Gore for not campaigning on Clinton's successful economic programme. Gore is not running in 2004, so he no longer has to defer to Clinton whose support would have been key to his chances for victory. Writing in the New York Post, savvy political consultant Dick Morris opined that Al Gore and Howard Dean are fighting for the same thing: independence from Bill and Hillary Clinton.

That may not be easy to do, if Clinton decides to play the endorsement game. Clinton favours Wesley Clark, and one wonders if the former president will feel compelled to leave the sidelines and endorse the general's candidacy. Interestingly, both Clinton and Clark are Arkansas natives and former Rhodes Scholars. Last week, Clark put together a 17-minute videotape biography, just as Clinton did in 1992. It chronicles his Arkansas upbringing and decorated military career and will be used to promote his presidential campaign. Meanwhile, dozens of former Clinton staffers are now working for Clark's campaign.

But it will take more than slick promotion and Bill Clinton's endorsement to stop Dean.

Polls are showing that the former Vermont governor is widening his lead in key states, including New Hampshire. Several analysts have speculated that Dean's momentum should carry him to victory in the first major contests in Iowa and New Hampshire early next year. That will make the February primaries in my home state of South Carolina and half a dozen other key states crucial in the effort to stop Dean.

The conventional wisdom is that Dean can't win in the conservative South, but he has shown himself to be a consummate politician. So far, on the trail of election 2004, Dean has survived a flap over the confederate flag and apparent flip-flops on Medicare, social security and trade issues. Dean signed the country's only law allowingcivil union between homosexuals, but that has not come back to haunt him yet on the campaign trail.

Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, has said that biggest mistake Dean's opponents have made so far is to underestimate the Vermont Democrat. "We won't make the same mistake of underestimating them," Trippi vowed. If that's true, then Dean will be tough candidate to beat come the primaries in 2004. The question then is: can Dean convince the electorate that he is the better man to lead the nation during this critical period in American history?

Ron Chepesiuk, a Rock Hill, South Carolina journalist, is a visiting professor of journalism at Chittagong University, former Fulbright Scholar to Bangladesh, and a Research Associate with the National Defense College of Bangladesh.