Caught in the rut

Blame minister's inaction, blame coalition politics or the highest decision making cell in the government, whatever may be reasons, the government's decision making has been acutely paralysed over the last one and half years. Barring opening of some bridges on the national highways not a single important decision or a development project has either been taken or implemented by any ministry of the government since the beginning of the last fiscal year.

Reports published in the newspapers in the recent past indicated that the Finance Minister M. Saifur Rahman in a meeting with the high officials of the Finance Division and Planning Commission on review of mid term budget framework expressed his resentment and unhappiness over the reckless spending of public money by the ministries. Citing an instance that Tk.4000 crore was spent in just five days ending June in the last fiscal year he termed it as an example of how public money was wasted. Shockingly indeed, funds lay idle throughout the year and spent recklessly in the last five days of the fiscal year.

Perhaps the Finance Minister or, so to say, the Finance Ministry whose job it is to keep a tight control and strict vigil on wasteful expenditure has failed in its job. And even if the minister tries to suppress his worries while admitting belatedly that the financial health of the nation is not okay, people all over the country have felt the crunch of price hike of food grains and essential commodities just after the announcement of the dream budget and implementation of the new pay scales .. With the sharp depreciation of home currency against dollar, fiscal deficit ballooning for pouring subsidies in PSUs, as well as gradual rise of oil and food grain price in the international market bringing in its wake a difficult balance of payment situation, the country, it appears, is heading towards a bigger crisis.

Budget is not only the occasion for the government to throw open its account to public audit, it is also the moment for it to speak its mind on economic policy to draw the road map for how government, industry and even ordinary citizens will earn, spend and save their money, Since economics is seldom, if ever, divorced from politics, a budget should necessarily carry a larger message. It tells the nation which constituencies the government wants to address, which concerns it sees as priority. On ultimate analysis there is a big question mark as to what the Finance Minister has done in wooing the core constituency: the burgeoning middle class. The strength, political and economic, of the country's middle class has to be recognised by the government. There seems to be an unwritten law that somewhere into the fourth year, ahead of election, in office a government gets into a crisis and runs out of steam regardless of the size of the majority.

By all reckoning, the picture is not rosy. The government's finances continue to be in a major mess. This is further accentuated by a decision that the government has taken on the last day of the budget approval through allowing black money to be whitened at a nominal tax rate of 7.5 per cent. The amnesty for tax evaders is a disaster for any tax administration that wants stricter enforcement. It demoralises the honest tax payer and rewards the dishonest tax evader. This can only play havoc with compliance widening the gap between the rich and the poor, especially the middle class who have been robbed of all opportunities to augment their savings or income.

A recent analysis has shown that the export earning that increased by 12.82 per cent till March could not meet the import demand that grew by 26.4 per cent. To add to this worry, a 16 per cent remittance growth and a significant inflow of foreign assistance coming as budgetary support were overshadowed by the import surge and the resultant foreign exchange crisis. Surprisingly the Finance minister has not created an environment that will propel middle-class consumption and lead to an economic growth that will indirectly fill the government coffers. For any government to reap economic success what is needed more other than a team of officials and public leaders imbued with the qualities of head and heart, integrity, efficiency and commitment, is an environment free of violence and partisan feud. Perhaps without recognising the fact that good politics can only make good economics, the lofty thoughts embedded in the dream budget will be an audacious gamble.

Expectedly for a nation mired in unending crisis and courting disaster with alarming frequency and desperate to chart out a road map for progress, development and self-sufficiency, it must focus its attention on two core issues: education and electricity. Steeped in a culture of ignorance and bad politics, our leaders have long discarded these two primary objectives. Nothing seems to be working in the electricity front. If the mistakes were made in the early 1990s, that was because of lack of experience and knowledge. If the mistakes are made today, it is because of lack of vision, competence and integrity. This perhaps has nothing to do with the government of the day or the party in power.

Electricity is the driving force behind economic progress. There is hardly any sector or any person that can do without electricity. Undeniably true, even the farmer in the remotest village wants electricity for his home and his proposed bore well. Since government sectors can hardly finance such hugely expensive venture, we have to welcome private venture discarding old attitude and mentality. Till now there is a thinking that all power generation should be in the hands of the government It is worth mentioning that India at present produces 85,000 MW of power and in the next five years it wants to set up over 100,000 MW of additional capacity and it will invite private entrepreneurs to do so. Bangladesh as it is learnt from Power Development sources , produces about 3,300 MW of power against a requirement of 4,000MW. But in order to put the country on the road to progress and development, it needs another 4,000 MW of power. If all of this additional capacity will be the responsibility of the public sector, then obviously the Finance Minister's dream budget envisioning a prosperous Bangladesh will remain a pipe-dream.

The Finance Minister may not be an economist but because of his long association with the Finance portfolio, he has been able to diagnose the ills plaguing the march of the nation towards development and self-sufficiency and more so because he understands the common man's aspirations and expectations from the government. This has enabled him to give a package that is seemingly diffused but will make economic sense if funds are properly utilised.

Budget 2005-06 has rolled an ambitious task list for all ministries ranging from Agriculture to Food and Health to Education and the most important of all LGRD and Energy. What is needed now is to prioritise investment in certain sectors. Pushing investments on roads, airports, seaports and railways will add momentum to infrastructure development, nurture the recovery and transportation of cement, fertilizer and steel -- the basic materials for development. As the infrastructural facilities are developed, job situation and employment opportunities will be automatically created.

Taking it for granted as the Finance Minister has said in a meeting with the high officials that he has to release funds for projects under pressure from the MPs, the ministry concerned under which the projects are carried out has a responsibility to see that the projects have actually been implemented with success. Report carried by a Bangla newspaper in the recent past indicates that the Jamuna- Bangalee river erosion control project carried out at a cost of 130 crore taka is now in doldrums. Spurs and revetments placed on the eroding part of the river were so weak, incomplete and flawed that the river Jamuna, now in full fury, washed out the settlements on the bank rendering more people homeless. This is how public money is wasted without proper supervision and monitoring. Sand bags and cc blocks reportedly placed on the eroding bank of the river have been washed away without any true account of them being available. Suspicion is lurking in public mind, as some reporters of the national dailies allege that money was paid for the work that was never done. .So the real problem of Bangladesh is not always of money but of management -- utter uselessness, insensitivity and inertia of the administration particularly in times of crisis.

Undeniably true , with a little commitment ,we could have solved many of these problems much earlier. Tragically, even after 33 years on to independence, we cannot provide our people basic amenities that most developed countries take for granted -- drinking water, schools, jobs, a roof overhead -- but we can afford thousands of luxury vehicles and apartments, air-conditioned shopping malls studded with high cost low utility items. Till now we tend to overlook the fact that countries like Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia used to be bicycle economies like our own but have become motor car economies in the past 20 years while we still largely remain a cycle-rickshaw economy. Their citizenry is mostly literate and lives with a few basic 20th century necessities like sanitation, clean drinking water and electricity. Most of our people, on the other hand, live in conditions that would have been considered horrific by the 19th century standard. Let me recall my pleasant memories and experience I had while visiting Malaysia some years ago as a visiting Commonwealth Fellow. Starting from the airports to all the places like the manufacturing plants, universities, tower buildings and the roads and bridges I travelled over I was fascinated to see the flawless work done in every place and the facilities created. On my questioning as to how this country reaped such excellent progress in the same span of time that we have been through with money, men and experience, my guide, a Malaysian university officer, told me that in Malaysia 90 per cent of the fund allocated for any project are actually utilised, while this may not be so in other places.

All these lessons keep us pondering where we have failed and if we can still turn this nation with a burgeoning twenty million unemployed labour force on the road to self-sufficiency, progress and development. Recalling the comment that renowned futurologist Alvin Toffler made in an India Today conclave about India sometime back, "If you don't combine strategy with agility, you could end up in Tokyo with your baggage in Timbaktoo", the government must take all out measures to shore up the battered economy now. That's the thought worth holding on to for all of us.

Md Asadullah Khan is a former teacher of physics and controller of examinations, BUET.