Changing of the guard in Burma

These changes are expected to emerge at the end of the quarterly meeting of the country's governing State Peace and Development Council or SPDC which is due to start on Saturday in the country's new administrative capital, Pyinmana, some four hundred kilometres north of the existing capital Rangoon.

The country's top twelve generals are expected to discuss their plans and strategy for the future. This quarterly meeting had been scheduled for earlier this year but was postponed because of the massive move to Pyinmana. Now that this has been effectively completed, the top generals are turning their attention to the country's political future.

The national reconciliation process, as the regime calls its plans for political reform, has been substantially delayed, partly because of the move to the new capital, and partly as a result of the arrest of the former intelligence chief and prime minister, General Khin Nyunt more than eighteen months ago.

Thousands of his supporters were also purged and many sentenced to hundreds of years in jail. Since then the regime's leader has been primarily concerned with consolidating his power within the army and the country's administration.

Than Shwe now feels comfortable enough to proceed with his plans for Burma's political future. The National Convention, which is drafting a new constitution, is scheduled to resume its deliberations later this year. The Burmese foreign minister Nyan Win told his South East Asian counterparts in their retreat in Bali last month that the constitution would take another two years to complete.

Drafting a new constitution is the first step in the government's democracy roadmap. According to the regime's plans, this will then be put to a referendum and fresh elections held some time after that.

Now that the Than Shwe wants to restart the national reconciliation process, the regime's main concern is to prepare the ground for the next step, this means immobilising or eliminating all potential opposition, including the pro-democracy parties and the ethnic rebel groups, most of whom have ceasefire pacts with Rangoon.

Than Shwe's first task though, is to revamp the army command and shake-up the government. These changes are currently in the pipeline. These planned changes are the most dramatic since the army seized power nearly eighteen years ago.

Burma's top general is reportedly planning to give up at least one of the three key posts he holds -- chairman of the SPDC, supreme commander of the army and defence minister. "We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defence minister in the forthcoming reshuffle," said a South East Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

General Than Shwe is also expected to stand down as the commander-in-chief of the army, with the country's third most powerful military leader, General Thura Shwe Mann taking over the helm of Burma's military machine. Than Shwe's current number two, General Maung Aye is expected to be sidelined.

"He will remain as Deputy Chairman of the SPDC -- a largely ceremonial post -- but relinquish his position as deputy commander-in-chief of the military," according to a senior government source.

These changes have been on the cards for sometime. They were initially expected to be made at the last SPDC quarterly meeting more than six months ago, but were delayed when Than Shwe decided the move to Pyinmana was the top security concern. This time last year he told the visiting Thai army's supreme commander, General Chaisit Shinawatra, who has since retired, that General Thura Shwe Mann would take over as the country's leader in due course.

Chinese officials have believed for sometime that Gen Than Shwe will stand down this year so that he can become the civilian president under the new constitution.

General Thura Shwe Mann, is scheduled to take over as head of the army and then replace Than Shwe as head of the junta, according to a senior Chinese diplomat who deals with Rangoon.

"Even if Than Shwe officially retires he will not give up his power. Instead he'll remain the grey eminence behind the throne, along the lines of the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the years before his death," said the independent Burmese analyst Win Min, who is based in Chiang Mai.

Than Shwe's move is part of his scheme to ensure that he remains in control of the country after a civilian government is voted in under the new constitution. "He wants to be president for life," a senior military source close to him said.

A major cabinet reshuffle is also in the pipeline. Some of the older ministers are likely to resign and give way to some of the younger regional commanders. Amongst those slated to give up their posts are the country's energy minister Lun Thi, electricity minister Tin Htut, immigration minister Sein Htwar, and industry minister Saw Lwin. Several others may also be dumped including the planning minister Soe Hta.

This is primarily to provide positions for the next generation of generals to become familiar with civilian administration and to more effectively prepare for the country's new political future.

Than Shwe's grassroots community organisation, the Union Solidarity Development Association or USDA set up more than a decade ago, will soon officially become a political party so that it can contest the new elections to be held under the new constitution.

Since the former prime minister and intelligence chief, General Khin Nyunt was purged, along with thousands of his supporters in late 2004, the top Generals have begun to strengthen their control of the army and country. They are anxious to eliminate any potential obstacle to the exercise of their power.

The planned changes to the military command structure and the expected cabinet shake-up are all intended to increase the junta's capacity to implement its own plans for national reconciliation.

Although now a new generation of generals may take responsibility for the day-to-day running of the country and execute the seven-stage roadmap to democracy, Than Shwe will remain the power behind any throne. "He is replicating his usual approach of pitting potential junior rivals against each other to create a balance of power," according to the analyst Win Min.

General Thura Shwe Mann, will head the new triumvirate of military leaders, and is expected to be supported by the prime minister General Soe Win and Secretary One, General Thein Sein.

"This is the new generation of military leaders who are being readied to take over power," according to senior Indian diplomats who deal with Rangoon. But, they warn, this group of generals lacks the manners and intelligence of their superiors.

"These men are uncouth, uneducated, and only know how to bark orders," said a former Indian diplomat who had been based in Rangoon previously and knows the new generals well.

Larry Jagan was the BBC World Service's News and Current Affairs Editor for Asia and the Pacific for more than 10 years. He is an East Asia specialist and has covered Burma for more than 20 years.