The danger of importing avian flu

Two of the countries on the list, India and Malaysia, have not reported any outbreaks of avian influenza; however, as India and Malaysia border countries which are known to be infected with avian flu, there is an extremely high probability that both of these countries will also soon suffer outbreaks. So, banning poultry imports from these countries was a necessary precaution.

Recently, a small number of poultry hatcheries have been pressuring the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries allow the import of parent stocks from India. These hatcheries have been complaining because importing parent stock from India is much cheaper than importing from Europe. These hatcheries argue that the OIE (Office Internaciaonal des Epizooties -- the international organisation which monitors animal health) has not reported any avian influenza outbreaks in India, and that we can therefore import chicks from India without fear of importing avian flu.

This argument is misinformed. The OIE is not a worldwide health-testing and certifying body. The way in which the OIE works is clearly stated on its website:

"Each Member Country undertakes to report the animal diseases that it detects on its territory. The OIE then disseminates the information to other countries, which can take the necessary preventive action." (http://www.oie.int/eng/ OIE/en_transparence.htm)

The fact that the OIE has not reported Avian flu outbreaks in India does not mean that the OIE has sent veterinarians to poultry farms all over India and given them a "Bird Flu Free Certificate." All it means is that the veterinary authorities of the government of India have not reported any outbreaks to the OIE.

The case of Thailand illustrates this point. Months before Thailand officially reported its outbreaks of avian flu, Bangladeshi poultry hatcheries had already learned through private sources in the Thai poultry industry of huge mortality on poultry farms, probably caused by avian flu. The Thai government was covering up the avian flu outbreak under pressure from chicken (and parent stock) exporters. These companies knew that official admission of an avian flu outbreak would immediately end all exports.

On January 23, 2004, Thailand reported its avian flu outbreak to the OIE and began destroying infected birds in order to stop the spread of the outbreak. What made them suddenly decide to report the avian flu outbreak? The answer is that on January 23, the first human cases of avian influenza in Thailand were confirmed by laboratory tests. Once it became clear that humans were dying of avian flu, the Thai government could no longer deny the presence of the disease.

The Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries must realise, then, that the OIE's function is to disseminate reports from national veterinary authorities. If we examine critically the report submitted to the OIE by the Indian veterinary authorities, we see the following statement:

"So far there has been no case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in India and if there is any such incidence in future the same will be informed to OIE ..."

(http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/India%2004-03-2004.pdf)

What is most important is what this statement omits. The Indian veterinary authorities denied having outbreaks of highly-pathogenic avian flu, but did not deny outbreaks of low-pathogenic avian flu. For months now, private sources in the Indian poultry industry have informed Bangladeshi hatcheries that low-pathogenic avian flu has spread everywhere in India. The government of India has been covering up these outbreaks in order to protect India's exports of parent stock chicks to Bangladesh, Nepal and the Middle East. It was because of these unofficial reports (which had proven to be true in the case of Thailand) that poultry hatcheries pressured the government to include India on the list of countries from which the import of parent stock was banned.

Low-pathogenic avian flu is not as dramatic as highly-pathogenic avian flu. Highly-pathogenic avian flu is unmistakable as it kills almost all the chickens on an infected farm in just a few days; the low-pathogenic strains of avian flu are less deadly to chickens and easily mistaken for other poultry diseases. However, flu viruses mutate very quickly; a virus which is today low-pathogenic, and which affects only poultry, may mutate and become highly-pathogenic and infect humans as well as poultry.

The ban on parent stocks from India must be maintained. We know that Thailand covered-up its avian flu problem until human deaths brought it out into the open; it is likely that the same subterfuge is going on in India at this moment. We cannot risk importing even low-pathogenic avian flu. If the virus mutates into highly pathogenic bird flu, it would at the very least destroy our poultry industry. The worst case scenario is if the virus mutates into a highly pathogenic flu virus which is transmissible between humans. That could cause a worldwide flu pandemic like the 1918 pandemic which killed millions of people.

Abdur Rahman is a researcher.