Destabilising Turkey?

Hardly Turkey had time to look after the wounds that two suicide bombers appeared on the scene and this time targeted the British interests. Once again two small trucks loaded with bombs appeared at 9 a.m. before the British Consulate General in Beyoglu and the skyscraper in Levent where is located the large British Bank HSBC and unloaded their deadly cargo. Among the dead was the British Consul General Short. More than two dozen perished and several hundred injured. This particular attack has taken place when US President George W. Bush has been dining at the Buckingham palace. Cutting short his visit the British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has appeared in Istanbul. After expressing routine condolences Straw has given powerful support to Turkey's great desire to join the European Union ( EU). This is sweet music in the ears of the Turks. This second blow was so severe that one columnist of the largest circulation Turkish daily Hurriyet has called it Turkey's 11 September.

The targets selected believably by Al-Qaida deserve to be examined. In the first instance the target is Turkey and Israel. In Turkey there is great feeling for the Palestinians, who have been continuously massacred by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's forces. On the other hand there is considerable uneasiness among the Turks regarding the continuous growing relations between Turkey and Israel. The cooperation is going from strength to strength and is now embracing the defence field. There is great resentment among the Arabs about the growing relations between Turkey and Israel. The coming to power in Turkey of the Islamist AKP party has not slowed down the process.

In the second car bomb attack, within one week, the target is clearly Great Britain. Britain, the unquestioning ally of the US in the war against Iraq is paying a price. It is worth noting that Al-Qaida has invariably selected as target the allies of the US, who have furnished troops in the operation in Iraq. A prime example is Italy, where the Government had to hold massive memorial services for those who perished in Iraq. By their versatility Al-Qaida and its associates are proving Russian Premier Vladimir Putin right, who recently stated that Al-Qaida had the capacity to hit any target at any time. They prefers to hit at two targets at the same time. The symbolism in the twin synagogues reminded one of the Twin Towers of New (9/11).

The dual terrorist operation has taken place when on the top of the Turkish agenda is her four-decade old quest for membership of the European Union. Turkey has set her sights totally on joining this powerful club. The EU although declared earlier that there was no connection to the Cyprus dispute between Turkey and Greece, has in a recent report clearly stressed the need for a solution.

Briefly the problem is that the island of Cyprus stands divided between Turkish Cypriots in the north and Greek Cypriots in the south. Turkish forces were compelled to militarily intervene in 1974 when Greece was about to swallow Cyprus. The UN has been valiantly trying for a negotiated settlement. To complicate the matter EU has decided to give membership to south Cyprus, which enjoys international recognition. Come May 2004 Cyprus will become one of 10 new members of the EU.

Elections are due in north Cyprus and it is a crucial election. President of north Cyprus Rauf Denktas, who has staked everything on his alliance with Turkey has been campaigning vigorously for his party. Sensing that southern Cypriots are due to join the EU, and benefit from such membership there has been genuine demands in favour of the island joining the EU as a whole. These elections, which are due on 14 December next, are likely to decide the future of Cyprus and consequently the future of negotiations between Turkey and the EU.

Turkey has set her sights on getting a date at the end of 2004 for the start of negotiations. Of the big two namely Germany and France, Germany has openly given support to Turkey. There are more than two million Turks in Germany and they too play a role in the politics of Germany. France continues to maintain Olympian silence. Britain, who does not have too much clout within the EU and feels somewhat isolated has thrown in her support for Turkey.

Membership of Turkey will have a major impact not only on Europe but because of the growing weight of the EU, on the world at large. If Turkey succeeds in joining the EU, she will be a formidable player with the second largest population after Germany. More importantly EU will cease to be a Christian club.

There is anxiety all over Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayiip Erdogan has called upon his people to maintain calm. This weekend will be followed by almost a week of Eid holidays. That will be time enough to pick up the pieces. Turkey has a strong government and surely Al-Qaida or any similar outfit will be unable to destabilise the regime.

Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador.