Determining our foodgrain requirement

Determining per capita daily foodgrain requirement is vital for our production planning, overall food management, and food budgeting.

Since 1985-86 the national planners have been taking 453.6 gm as the per capita daily foodgrain requirement, although its basis has been questioned by many.

Foodgrain consumption has a strong correlation with calorie intake, which in turn determines the incidence of poverty. Several sources have estimated per capita per day calorie requirement.

Using direct calorie intake (DCI) method, Household Income & Expenditure Survey (HIES-2000) of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has drawn two poverty lines: absolute poverty based on intake of 2122 kilo calorie (Kcal) per capita per day, and hardcore poverty based on per capita daily intake of 1805 Kcal.

The Institute of Nutrition and Food Science (INFS) estimates calorie requirement at 2039 Kcal per capita per day. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) recommends 2400 Kcal per capita daily. Food and Nutrition Policy suggests 2700 Kcal per capita per day.

HIES-2000 has calculated 476 gm as the average national daily per capita intake of rice and wheat. This is equivalent to 1666 Kcal. If wheat and rice constitutes 75 per cent of calorie intake, this means that total daily calorie intake per capita is 2240 Kcal and total daily per capita food intake is 893.1 gm.

If we use the FAO recommended 2400 Kcal per capita daily calorie requirement, 75 per cent of this amount comes to 1800 Kcal which requires intake of 514 gm of foodgrain (rice and wheat). This is significantly lower than the average intake of 476 gm.

Bangladesh has more than doubled its foodgrain production since independence. In 1971-72, foodgrain production was 10.04 million metric tons, and production reached a record level of 26.07 million metric tons in 2000-2001.

Requirement of foodgrain at 453.6, 476, and 514 gm per capita daily with an estimated population of 133 million in 2001 comes to 22.02, 23.01, and 24.09 million metric tons respectively.

Deduction of 10 percent as seed, feed, and wastage brought net production, or, in other words, net availability of domestically produced foodgrain for consumption in 2000-2001 to slightly over 23 million metric tons. This marginally met HIES-2000 calculated consumption requirement, but failed to meet the FAO recommended per capita per day foodgrain requirement.

In 2001-2002 and 2002-2003, gross production of foodgrain (rice and wheat) stood at 25.09 million and 26.06 million metric tons respectively. This is a scenario against about 2 percent annual population growth in the country. This negative growth in foodgrain production coupled with reduced food aid led to the sharp increase in foodgrain import in the private sector during the last two years. In 2000-2001 foodgrain import in the private sector was 1.06 million metric tons. In 2002-2003 foodgrain import in the private sector stood at 2.09 million metric tons.

It may be mentioned that determining per capita daily foodgrain requirement is a sensitive issue. A high level of requirement may raise question on its sustainability. If the level of requirement goes up that can lead to increase in price of foodgrain. On the other hand, a low level projection of foodgrain requirement may distort the real demand scenario. Determining actual foodgrain requirement is important as it influences the donors' decision for food aid to Bangladesh. Reported claim of attaining self-sufficiency in food production has already led to sharp decrease in food aid in recent years. In 2002-2003, food aid came down to only 2.54 lakh metric tons against yearly 9.3 lakh metric tons in the nineties.

As stated above, assessing per capita daily foodgrain requirement is important for production planning, overall food management, and food budgeting. Considering the above mentioned importance, an initiative was taken in 2002 to determine the per capita daily foodgrain requirement based on scientific analysis. Comments received from the relevant government ministries/agencies and the international organizations like FAO, World Health Organization (WHO), World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission (EC), showed that they all differed with 453.6 gm per capita daily foodgrain requirement.

During discussion with them, they suggested an in-depth study on the issue and holding of workshops and seminars to be participated by experts from the relevant organizations. The seminars and workshops would discuss the issue in depth and suggest future course of action. It was also decided in the meeting that EC, WFP, and FAO would be requested to extend their assistance in organising those seminars and workshops. The matter should be seriously pursued in the national interest.

M. Abdul Latif Mondal is a former Secretary, Ministry of Food.