The ensuing Indian elections

By all accounts Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has the image of a leader, who really cannot be challenged. His has been a smooth government, which cannot be faulted on almost any account. Although there are doubts about the credentials of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and particularly its rabidly communal wing Rashtriya Sevak Sangha (RSS), Vajpayee has managed to stay above the communal bickerings in an India torn from time to time by Hindu chauvinism. Even on the vexed issue of Babri mosque, the historical mosque razed to the ground decade years ago under the secular regime of Indian National Congress. The Hindu militants of the BJP raise the slogan from time to time that they will erect there Ram Mandir (Hindu temple dedicated to the venerated god Ram). Vajpayee has cleverly managed to avoid being entangled in this controversy.

The adroit politician Vajpayee has timed perfectly his move to start his long road to accommodation, with his arch rival Pakistan. It was not an easy change of heart for Atal Behari Vajpayee. He like all his Indian predecessors have fought shy of starting a dialogue with Pakistani leader occupying the seat of power, who would wear the military uniform. Indeed Vajpayee had started the Bus diplomacy with the predecessor of the current Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, the elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf had ousted Sharif in a military coup some three years ago. Vajpayee demonstrated utter frustration at the arrival of a military leader at the helm in Pakistan. For some time Gen. Musharraf was in the dog house and was ostracized throughout the world. As a fall out of 9/11 of 2001 US President George Bush needed Musharraf's help in his effort to destroy the Taleban regime of Afghanistan, neighbour of Pakistan, and Musharraf made his return to the world stage.

A peace deal with India is of utmost importance for Pakistan. For the entire length of the existence of Pakistan, which is little over half a century, India and Pakistan have been locked in a bitter dispute mainly centering around the beautiful state of Kashmir, in the Himalayan mountains. For the possession of this state two wars have been fought and two years ago a mini war in the high Kargil mountains was fought. The two states nearly started a war when suspected Pakistanis infiltrated into the seat of Indian democracy, the Parliament.

It seems that Atal Behari Vajpayee is ready to give the benefit of the doubt to Gen. Pervez Musharraf. It is besides good election politics. While renewing the dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart Vajpayee has stated that this would be his last effort at making peace with Pakistan. Vajpayee is nearing 80 and does not expect to hold the reins of power for much longer. This is good election politics because Indians like the Pakistanis are tired of this half a century old dispute with her neighbour. Interestingly both sides are careful not to raise expectations to a very high level. Thus we see that the two sides are continuously building bridges and discussions are continuing at high technical level. Thus after a break of 15 years Indian cricketers are visiting Pakistan. The first match in the series was played in Karachi and the supporters of both sides were a model of civility.

The two sides very wisely have not started with the long and intractable dispute of Kashmir. A line of control separates the two parts of Kashmir. The beautiful vale and its surroundings are under the control of India and the part of Kashmir adjacent to Pakistan is under Pakistani control. The northernmost part of Kashmir, that is Ladakh touches nearly China as well. It is certain that a settlement will entail major concessions from both sides. Here the elected government of Vajpayee has a built-in advantage. On the other hand power base of Gen. Musharraf is extremely fragile. His base is really the armed forces and how far they will be prepared to make concessions is the great unknown.

Atal Behari Vajpayee is facing Sonia Gandhi, the president of the main opposition Indian National Congress. The Gandhi-Nehru name is still kept alive in memory of its historical role in winning independence and she was placed at the head of the Congress party for continuation of the family name. There are not many Indians , who expect Sonia, the Italian born widow of Rajiv Gandhi to defeat Vajpayee. Yet the Indian election inspite of the catchy slogan 'India is shining' is unable to catch on popular imagination. Thus the speculation is centering around L.K.Advani, who at 78 may appears a trifle too old to inherit the mantle of the successor.

What about the Muslim vote in India? In the Nehru-Indira and Rajiv days they voted solidly for the Congress because in Congrees they saw the best safeguard against militant Hindus. The situation has changed considerably and the BJP inspite of its communal credentials is wooing the Muslim vote. One wonders what is going to be the fate of secularism, which holds a place of pride in the Indian Constitution, in BJP hands.

The largest democracy of the world is about to vote. If the results were not so predictable, this would attract attention of the entire world.

Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador.