The future of EU

Besides consolidating the treaties and protocols which often overlap each other, the constitution streamlines the EU's cumbersome decision-making process to accommodate its recent expansion. It creates the position of a full-time president for a renewable term of two and a half years. This would do away with the current six-monthly turn-based system which has proved to be ineffective. There will also be a foreign minister of the Union to conduct the EU's "common foreign and security policy". The draft also authorises the establishment of the office of a European Public Prosecutor. The European Parliament will have powers to legislate in more areas than ever. Despite considerable pressure from conservative groups and the Vatican to refer specifically to Europe's supposed Christian roots alone, the constitution maintains a secular profile, which is not a mean achievement in the current international environment of religious hatred and intolerance. For the first time the constitution introduces a Charter of Fundamental Rights for all the citizens of the Union.

But in Europe, there is a growing disenchantment with the workings of the EU. The memories of the two World Wars, which devastated Europe, have now faded. The EU's founding rationale-preventing another conflagration of huge magnitude on European soil-no longer resonates with many Europeans. After the end of the Cold War, the fear of an invasion from the East has virtually disappeared. The Europeans think that the expansion has gone too far and too fast. Even worse, they feel that it has been done behind their back without their participation. There is a growing feeling among many ordinary Europeans that their representatives in Brussels have become so remote from reality that they no longer know how the ordinary Europeans live and what they think. They feel that the EU is pursuing an agenda which is driven by big business. They think that their representatives in Brussels, instead of rushing a constitution, should first try to resolve Europe's day-to-day problems like slow economic growth, high unemployment, social justice, globalisation, immigration and terrorism. Even Angela Merkel, the next president of the EU stated recently, “It is right not to rush now, but to watch developments calmly and explore the possibilities of putting in place such a constitutional treaty.”

Brussels is well aware of this attitude. Unfortunately, the Europeans do not seem to appreciate the enormous economic reforms achieved and consequent growth possibilities opened up by the European single market concept, the contribution made by the euro and the sense of security given to many people in countries prone to coups and military dictatorships. The European leaders know that in order to come into effect the constitution must be endorsed unanimously by all member-states. Besides France and Holland, six other members-Britain, Ireland, Poland etc. have made it clear that they have no immediate plans to endorse the constitution. Brussels knows that the constitution in its current form has absolutely no chance of being revived in the near future.

So what is the future?

On May 28, foreign ministers of the EU member-states discussed the possibility of dropping the label constitution, a term which was probably too ambitious and which, no doubt stoked fears in countries like France, Holland and Britain etc. of losing their national sovereignties to a super-state run from Brussels. They also discussed the possibility of rescuing parts of the document as a new treaty by 2009 with a view to making a stronger economic union. So until 2009, the EU will be governed in accordance with the terms of the Nice Treaty. The foreign ministers also agreed to be more conservative in admitting new members. Since membership has already been promised to Romania and Bulgaria, most probably they will become part of the EU by 2009. But as far as Croatia, Montenegro and a few other aspiring Balkan states are concerned, they will have to wait. The chances of Turkey ever entering the EU still look very remote because of its huge Muslim population. As far as the political integration is concerned, it is highly unlikely that in the foreseeable future the member nations of the EU will surrender their sovereignty and form a politically integrated United States of Europe.

The writer is a columnist of the Daily Star.