Hillary Clinton: Is America ready for a female president?

Nonetheless, despite all these achievements, the US lags behind nearly fifty countries of the world, from highly developed to the least developed, for never having a female head of state/government. The closest it has ever gotten was when Walter Mondale nominated Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate in the 1984 presidential race.

Things are changing two decades later. Women lawmakers are holding important posts in the Congress; Nancy Pelosi is the first female House minority leader. Albright and Rice have successfully held the post of Secretary of State, and female Senators and Governors have emerged as effective leaders. All these developments inevitably lead to a major question: Is America ready for a female president?

Well, if there is one single female candidate who has the best chance in the presidential election of 2008, it is Hillary Rodham Clinton. The former First Lady and the present junior senator from New York, hardly needs any introduction. Hillary has not expressed her desire to contest so far, and is currently focusing exclusively on her senatorial re-election bid from New York next November.

Hilary's re-election is a foregone conclusion as she has proved to be a highly capable senator and has successfully protected New York's interests. The Republicans are so sure of her re-election bid that they have not even put up a credible candidate against her. If this is a cakewalk for her, then why has Hilary set up such formidable logistic machinery for her re-election bid and why has she collected about $33 million in campaign funds? Obviously, the senator and her team are testing her chances in the 2008 presidential race. The funds collected now could be used later for the initial presidential campaign.

If Hilary decides to run for president, as everyone expects, then in all probability, she will declare her candidature sometime next spring. Once she declares her candidature, she automatically emerges as a front-runner. According to the latest TIME poll, Hilary (53%), leads over all other Democratic possible contenders, namely, Al Gore (49%), John Edwards (46%), and John Kerry (45%). Her negative rating is also much lower than these leading contenders. More importantly, if the Republican favourite John McCain gets the nomination, than he has only a 2-point lead over her, as compared to his 10-points lead over Kerry and 9 points over Gore.

United States, however, is a deeply divided country today, between the Democratic dominated "Blue America" and the Republican dominated "Red America." If Blue America supports her passionately, Red America opposes her with equal intensity. There are few "undecided" voters (about 3%) who have not formulated their opinion about Hillary. So her room to persuade the "undecided" is very small and her main task would be to convert the people who oppose her. It is a hard sell.

During the last two presidential races, the US has demonstrated one thing for sure, that the voting pattern has changed little in these states. In plain terms, it means that Hillary has to win all the states that Kerry won in 2004 and in addition, she has to win one more state, either Ohio or Florida, to clinch the White House.

President Bill Clinton had successfully combined the support of liberals and democrats in his presidential races in 1992 and 1996. He knew how to balance the two sides and the "Clinton era" is still viewed by many as a period of economic prosperity and political stability. Bill Clinton is still a big draw to his ardent supporters and would surely lend full support to his wife Hillary. However, in politics one hardly ever "steps in the same waters."

9/11 has significantly changed the American psyche and the country has surely moved to the right. Hillary is aware of the sea change and, naturally, has made pragmatic adjustments accordingly. The liberals are unhappy with her for voting in favour of the Iraq war and not budging from that position subsequently. Basically, Americans supported the Iraq invasion but they believe that President Bush did not do it the right way. Hillary has, therefore, increased her criticism of the Bush administration and has been recently calling for the dismissal of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. Americans would never trust a lady's finger on the nuclear button so Hillary has been trying to emerge as an "Iron Lady" as Margaret Thatcher had done in the UK during the Cold War era.

All said and done, Hillary's biggest asset is her husband, Bill Clinton, who knows how to make the right adjustment, at the right time, to get the right vote. No one doubts his political acumen or his brilliant campaign strategy. His job approval rating was 70%, nearly twice that of Bush. The problem, however, is that Bill is a charismatic figure who eclipses everybody else. The scenario has changed, though. Hillary is no longer the First Lady who has to play second fiddle. It is Hillary's race and she has to be at the centre stage. Can charismatic Bill play the role of second fiddle?

Once a person officially declares his/her candidature, the American people have a chance to dissect all aspects of a candidate. The media brings out all the skeletons from the closet. Surely Hillary's opponents would bring out issues like Monica Lewinsky to the Whitewater controversy, just as the Bush campaign successfully used the "swift boat" issue to damage John Kerry's bid.

Hillary knows very well that the Republicans have successfully campaigned to enlist the churchgoers' vote. According to recent Pew polls, Americans have turned more religious than before, and 60% of them pray at least once every day. So Hillary has been talking a lot about God and prayer in her recent speeches, although in the polarized political scene she has limited room to move to the right without antagonizing her traditional liberal vote bank.

Then, as the Howard Dean campaign has shown last time, the Democrats supported him initially, and, in fact, he was leading over all other candidates. But when the time came for votes at the primaries, they suddenly felt that Dean may be brilliant but he was "unelectable." The brilliant Dean campaign suddenly lost its steam and he withdrew in a matter of weeks. So the "electability" factor has to be kept in the purview all through the campaign.

On the national scale, Hillary is considered an intelligent, pragmatic and popular candidate. But, as noted earlier, Blue and Red America is sharply divided on her qualities. Partisan divisions also affect the perception of Hillary's political orientation. Democrats consider her a moderate, strong leader, with strong moral values, while the Republicans view her as a liberal, and rate her leadership qualities and moral values with skepticism. Hillary will surely consider all these pros and cons; it is possible that she might decide to forego the presidential race and focus on her career as a senator.

Having closely observed four presidential elections in the United States (1972, 1984, 2000, and 2004), I believe that, in the final analysis, the candidate who can persevere wins the race. The US presidential election campaign is a long haul and not a short sprint. One has to adjust and readjust according to the needs of the campaign. The logistics, funding and election strategy are of vital importance. Hillary Clinton has already demonstrated her leadership qualities and her capacity to steer a successful election campaign. Then again, the race is just beginning and she has miles to go in this long, uncertain, political marathon.

Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Foreign Secretary.