How are Indo-Pak ties shaping up under new Indian government ?

Many eyes are focused on the state of the Indo-Pakistan relations and how they shape up, particularly for the reason that a new ruling coalition, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) headed by erstwhile main opposition party Congress, is now in the helm, replacing the multi-party rainbow coalition of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP. Two alliances broadly fought the recent national elections as main rivals, and the former triumphed belying pre-poll surveys and assessment.

The NDA was in power for more than six years and Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime minister and undisputed leader of the coalition for both the terms that the NDA was in charge in South Block. The first term ended abruptly less than halfway through while the NDA was firmly entrenched in the second tenure and so much so that it advanced the polls by several months but the gamble paid adversely. Anyway, it was Vajpayee and the NDA that were familiar with current leadership in Pakistan and conducted the foreign policy, the cornerstone of which is definitely dealing with Islamabad.

Needless to say, for both India and Pakistan, ties with each other constitute the key element of their foreign policy for obvious reasons. For any government in Islamabad, it is New Delhi that matters most in the realm of external matters and likewise, an Indian government attaches top priority to issues related to Pakistan, since their ties are characteristically marked by sensitivities. The Indo-Pakistan relations often remain mired by disputes and even belligerence, but there are also phases when the state of ties is described as relatively and reasonably satisfactory. For the last six years, it was the NDA government that conducted policy with Pakistan regardless of ups and downs, and now a new authority in New Delhi is charged with the task. How is this UPA government dealing with the policy with Pakistan, an issue which is cynosure of all eyes.

It appears that that the UPA government is keen to carry forward the positive approach demonstrated by the NDA during the last phase of its rule, and it is in that line that New Delhi is encouraging dialogue with Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf has been at the helm in Islamabad for more than four years and during this entire period the NDA government and Prime Minister Vajpayee was in power in India. The relationship between the two countries during this period was mostly bad and hostile even though the last six months of the NDA rule saw a marked improvement towards normalisation of New Delhi-Islamabad ties. The two countries were on the brink of war twice and on the latest occasion more than a million troops remained deployed for a pretty long time along their borders prepared for a possible war. Fortunately, the full blown conflict did not finally occur, thanks to the efforts of the international community and saner section of people in both the countries. The two countries rolled back from the war situation and eventually normality returned.

All these happened ahead of the Indian polls, and an impression had gained ground that friendly relations with Pakistan might pay good dividends in the voting and NDA government allowed Indian cricket team to play in Pakistan after fourteen years. Certainly, the mood and tenor of the Indian people favoured good ties with the neighbour and this did play a role in the elections. But the voters did not credit the NDA for the development since the opposition was equally if not more willing for a better New Delhi-Islamabad relationship. If Vajpayee dispatched the cricket team, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi sent her son Rahul and daughter Priyanka to Karachi to witness the match. Besides, almost all the partners of today's UPA supported NDA government's initiatives to lessen tensions with Pakistan, but some partners of the NDA itself and its allies opposed such moves as they are known as rabidly anti-Pakistani.

The Shiv Sena, a component of the NDA, opposes tooth and nail co-operation with Pakistan in any field including the sports, while the Congress and allies were more favourably disposed to improved relationship with Islamabad although expectedly, all spoke of protecting national interests. Consequently, if desire of majority of the Indians for better ties with Pakistan played any role in the polls, it has comparatively gone in favour of the Congress and like minded parties. Even though Vajpayee is known as liberal within his BJP party, the driving force behind the NDA, hardliners like L.K. Advani were seen as disfavouring improved Indo-Pakistan relationship.

Now in the UPA government is supported by the leftists, who are really keen to see that India's relations with the neighbours are as far as possible tension-free so that the region can concentrate more on the welfare oriented programmes that would help the vast multitude of South Asia. The influence of the leftists, whose support is critical for the UPA government, will provide additional impetus to better Indo-Pakistan ties and it is possible that bilateral relations will witness greater interactions during the UPA rule in India.

However, the main bone of contention between the two countries is clearly Kashmir and any forward movement towards settlement of this contentious issue is a complex task. The Kashmir tangle has so far proved almost intractable as two sides hold virtually divergent positions on this dispute that is in existence ever since the two neighbours were carved out as independent countries from British-ruled India. As India and Pakistan are carrying out bilateral dialogue as different levels, the talks will be put to serious test when the core Kashmir issue is taken up at an appropriate level.

True, the dispute is too vexed for a solution, but many seemingly intractable matters that defied settlement for long did see amicable and peaceful resolution in the international arena in recent times. It would be height of folly to expect that India and Pakistan can soon resolve their main problem, but the efforts can continue in that direction. Bilateral co-operative ventures may develop in the meantime in different areas that will benefit their people. The spirit demonstrated by the two countries in the successful dialogue on nuclear related matters should be exemplified in the future, and the present time is propitious for better ties even though no one really suffers from the illusion that Indo-Pakistan relations can be totally friendly and trouble-free in the near future.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.