How much dent the Congress can make in the NDA citadel?

The ruling NDA is basking in the glory of having successfully completed the term in a country where culture of coalition politics has become a reality and in the process completion of the full term is also a kind of rarity. However, the present NDA government has not only faced no problem in the term but also advanced the voting by several months, which is a measure of confidence for the coalition headed by prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Any government that chooses to go for early elections deliberately abandoning the advantage of remaining in power for a considerable period of time can certainty be credited with such remarkable confidence. Hence, a victory by the ruling alliance may appear as a normal development. The chances of NDA returning to power as such seems on the cards barring a late swing favouring the opponents which is not very much expected to take place.

But it will be wrong to say that the NDA led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will have an easy sailing in the polls just because it has a popular figure like Vajpayee at the helm, a satisfactory economy and a friendly foreign policy, like relatively better relations with the neighbours -- mainly Pakistan -- at the time of the elections. True, the developments like cricket series in Pakistan and remarkable win by India has given a boost to the Vajpayee government ahead of the voting since it reflects popular feelings. Impetus to further normalisation of the ties with another hitherto unfriendly neighbour China will also be seen as favouring the NDA. Domestically, the results of the latest of the states that had gone to the polls also largely favoured the BJP and undeniably this development encouraged the NDA to go for early elections. All these bode well for the ruling coalition which did not face much serious challenge during its present tenure and consequently approached the voting with less tension and uncertainty.

The last NDA government had to quit office midway through the term because of inner squabbles particularly revolt by regional AIDMK party of Tamil Nadu led by its supremo Jayalalitha that caused the midterm polls. Earlier, a BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who headed two successive 22-party NDA authority in New Delhi, had lasted for barely twelve days as it had to relinquich sensing clear failure to muster necessary support on the floor of the house. The NDA this time did not confront threat to its existence even though there were occasional and minor ruptures in its cohesion. Needless to say, the ruling coalition could not have opted for early polls if it had doubts about returning to power. From the perspective of the NDA, the timing for the elections is favourable for it by all counts and there is no reason whatsoever why it should not fare well.

This somewhat rosy picture notwithstanding, the main opposition Congress seemed gaining ground, albeit slowly, during the last phase of the electioneering. The announcement of early polls did not come as a surprise to any quarters since the victory in the state assembly polls particularly in the important Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan had left few in doubt that the NDA will advance the voting at the national level in a bid to reap the benefits of the results. The Congress was not better placed at that time having suffered crushing defeats in the state assembly polls despite its good showing in the state polls earlier. It's leader Italian-born Sonia Gandhi is engaged in a grim battle to unseat the BJP-lead coalition from power but her own credential as a "foreigner" is a big liability for the organisation. She is definitely from India's famous Nehru-Gandhi political family but her belonging to that dynasty is by sheer marriage, being the widow of late Congress president and prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. Not only many Indians but even a section of Congressmen feel that the Italian-born lady is not an ideal choice for the top position like prime minister in a country of more than 100 crores.

NDA is happily aware of this and is pursuing the "foreigner" issue with all seriousness to disredit the Congress. Prime minister Vajpayee and other top NDA leaders are in the vanguard of this attack. However, the Congress has drafted Sonia's son Rahul into politics and he is contesting from slain father Rajiv's Amethi constituency in Uattar Pradesh while sister Priyanka is also busy in electioneering. Sonia is contesting from Indira Gandhi's adjacent Rae Bairely seat. The entry of her son and daughter in active politics has served well for the Congress because here is a direct inheritance from the Nehru family. Besides, too much to tirade against Sonia's "foreign origin" may also create sympathy for her. Indira Gandhi's younger son late Sanjay Gandhi's widow Maneka and son Barun Gandhi have joined BJP just before the polls clearly in a bid to stave off support for the Nehru family and Congress. They are sparing no effort to malign Sonia as "foreigner". This too may work against the BJP as a ploy of spliting the Nehru dynasty politically.

The Congress which has been faring badly in the largest Uttar Pradesh state that sends 85 members in the 543-member lower house of parliament (Loksabha), may improve its tally this time here because of Rahul-Priyanka factor. But the performance of Congress in the other Hindi heartland parts like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajashtan is important since no party or alliance can form a government at the centre without good showing in the critically important Hindi belt. Its tally in the south has not been satisfactory last time but it needs to be improved for any chance of forming a government in India. In West Bengal, it is the leftists who are ruling the roost for many years and they would retain the ascendancy. In any case, the leftists and centerist like the Congress are considered as secular forces and hence are closer to each other compared to their difference with the BJP, widely seen as reflecting the views of Hindu nationalism or allies of communal forces. However, the party has a liberal face which is presented by prime minister Vajpayee. Smaller parties and the regional organisations will have a crucial say if the NDA fails to win outright majority in the parliament. Different parties have forged electoral alliance and the NDA is much ahead of the main opposition in this regard.

It is possible that the NDA will have an absolute majority securing more than 273 seats but the alliance may fall short of this target. The Congress is not expected to gain any majority -- probably not even a single majority --which the BJP will gain in all possibility. But a non-NDA government may still be possible in the event the NDA fails to secure absolute majority and dark horses may emerge in the scene like H.D. Deve Gowda becoming the prime minister of the United Front government. Smaller parties are likely to hold the sway if the NDA rather unexpectedly fails to command the number of seats required for forming the government. Some smaller organisations like the Samajwadi party of Mulyam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh are maintaining distance from both BJP and Congress and may throw weight behind a big party only after the polls results.

There is no dearth of accusations and counter-accusations in the campaign. The Congress and the secular parties are attacking Vajpayee for his anti-independence role in the British India which the prime minister flatly denies. The BJP is trying to shed its communal image and even the hardliner deputy prime minister L.K. Advani is also talking soft about the minorities and good ties with Pakistan to placate the Muslims. But the hardliners are also blowing hot and cold as they have not abandoned the "Ram mandir" issue. Vajpayee is definitely the main asset for the BJP and the NDA. But contrary to NDA claims, there is no "Atal wave" in the Indian electoral scene. The conditions are favourable for the NDA but its easy sailing cannot be taken for granted.

Jagrul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.