How unstable is the BNP-Jamaat alliance?

Political alliances like cartels break up, or become unstable, because of the dominance by one or more partners or if some partners or individual members are unduly favoured. BNP is in alliance with two extremist parties which, unlike BNP, abhor everything a secular democracy offers. This political alliance will last only as long as each benefits by riding on the other. But in reality, Jamaat has been taking advantage of BNP and to many observers BNP is being slowly Jamaat-ised.

Some recent events and reports indicate that the political alliance led by BNP is in disarray. At the same time the all enveloping protests for electoral reforms are being suppressed with police brutality backed by BNP activists. This could be the precursor of a brewing quasi civil war (brother police pitted against brother citizens) reminiscent of the 1952 language movement and Ayub-Monayem's rule by brute force of the 1960s. All of us see where the country is heading but the person who is the most to blame finds the reasons for everything to be rooted in "foreign and domestic conspiracies."

Most editorials and op-ed articles argue fervently that utter mismanagement of state affairs through politicisation, corruption, and disregard of the rule of law in all spheres of state affairs have proliferated to such an extent that Khaleda's continuation in power is only hurting the country's image abroad and hampering political and economic progress at home. No wonder Professor Kabir Chowdhury, while addressing the Forum for Secular Bangladesh on May 4, demanded that Khaleda and her son Tarique be brought to trial for human rights violations and their illegally amassed properties be confiscated.

Apparently, all this has awakened the conscience of "a few good people" among the BNP loyalists. The looming internal feuds at every echelon of BNP leadership, and allegations of corruption against Hawa Bhaban are becoming serious concerns as the national election is tiptoeing closer and closer.

Rakib Suman's intriguing reports (Daily Star June 17 and 25) reveal that "silence is golden" is no longer the code of conduct of the BNP hierarchy. Even the grass roots level party principals are breaking the golden rule of silence as if to say, "enough is enough." But the mockery is that grass root activists are complaining against corrupt ministers and lawmakers to those in the Hawa Bhaban and Tarique Rahman, which is like "asking the hyenas to rescue chickens from the foxes' mouth."

Rakib's reporting indicated:

-- That some of the discords have been triggered by the humiliating and insolent treatment by junior lawmaker Ilyas Ali (backed by Tarique Rahman) of Finance Minister Saifur Rahman.

-- Several BNP standing committee members are openly indignant of Tarique's ascendancy, his alleged corruption, and unusual cosiness with Jamaat. They believe that his widespread disrepute and off-putting image and Hawa Bhaban's corruption network will cost BNP in the national poll.

-- Lawmaker Oli Ahmed refused to take orders from Tarique Rahman or even the secretary general Mannan Bhuiyan. He said: "As a member of the standing committee, I will follow only the directions of the party chairperson."

-- Others are bemused and thrown in a huff by Jamaat's scheming activities in their constituencies. Former Speaker Sheikh Razzak Ali alleged: "Jamaat has utilised government machinery to strengthen itself. It has not done anything for the country in the last four and a half years. If the Jamaat lawmakers are re-elected under the banner of the coalition, they will destroy the BNP in their areas."

The surfacing of on-going spate of protests from young grass root level activists against corrupt and aging ministers and lawmakers at the fag end of BNP's rule may have been engineered to get rid of older leadership and usher in Tarique Rahman's pre-eminence in leadership.

The upshot of all these is to argue that the fermenting disarray in BNP is making the alliance unstable. Not that we don't welcome it, but our curiosity is why these "few good people" are making noise now when the damage has already been inflicted with their tacit acquiescence.

As recourse, Khaleda may exorcise these rebels from the party or the eventual drama of breaking up Jamaat from the alliance must be consummated. But a goodbye to Jamaat will derail Tarique's ascendancy, and so extricating BNP from Jamaat is not an option. Game theory predicts that Jamaat will remain allied with BNP until it has the prospects of gaining more by dislodging from the alliance.

In my January 22 article: "How can AL win majority seats again?" I wrote: "The alliance offers BNP the prospects for being the majority party while Jamaat gets a protected parasitic growth to spread its fundamentalist ideology among the rural populace. The alliance guarantees Khaleda to firmly root her son's future prospects in political power. She will continue embracing Jamaat no matter what and at the same time keep overlooking BNP ministers and lawmakers alleged culpabilities in exchange for their resolute loyalty."

This is the ultimate testing time for the BNP chairperson. Her lack of higher education is no longer an issue given that she has been leading the party and elected PM for two terms. However, because she missed years of grooming on university and college campuses, she also missed the struggle for political rights, freedom of the press, and most significantly, how it felt when chased and beaten by riot police while leading street agitations for those rights. These may be the reasons she lacks the virtues of receptivity, empathy, and the guile to deal with protests for political reforms.

Today, there is no hiding that BNP is in some disarray and the country's democratic institutions are in a quandary. Arguably, Khaleda's lack of being au fait in the country's affairs coupled with her incapacity to impose the rule of law on her courtiers and goons is the reason why the people are entrapped in the current all-encompassing predicament.

If she truly loves the country she might think about following the wisdom of Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawarta. But as Brigadier Hafiz in his June 19 article articulated: "We are familiar with the game right from the Pakistani days and privy to its ugly face both during Ershad regime and Begum Zia's 'democratic' dispensation of 1991-96. More often than not they had to be hounded out."

Dr. Abdullah A. Dewan is Professor of Economics at Eastern Michigan University.