Is Indo-Pak peace process moving on the right track?

While two agreements -- military and nuclear technology -- signed between New Delhi and Washington in recent times caused some irritation in Pakistan, India feels that "terrorist" activities in the Kashmir region have not receded in the manner that New Delhi expected and the blame obviously goes to Islamabad. From Indian point of view, Pakistan failed to live up to the commitment in discouraging or stopping the cross border insurgency. Furthermore, certain comments from both sides were not seen as conducive to their efforts to furthering friendliness and consequently the future of the peace appeared little uncertain.

Earlier peace process received boost from highest level of two countries. When Pakistan president General Pervez Musharraf and Indian prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh met on the sidelines of the Afro-Asian conference in Bandung, Indonesia, sometime ago, they vowed to take the good initiatives forward. The Pakistan president was in the Indian capital later for the Indo-Pak cricket match, but the bilateral talks that he had with the Indian premier were seen as a "success" given the sensitivity that governs New Delhi-Islamabad ties. Two leaders agreed to give impetus to the difficult peace process and declared the trend as "irreversible" -- a commitment that raised both optimism and skepticism.

Broadly, the pledge was welcomed since hostility and belligerence have been the hallmarks of their bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, the fresh reconciliatory process appear to be moving largely without much problems and the summit level talks in New Delhi further boosted the encouraging signs. While the success of the rapprochement drive between two traditional South Asian neighbours will definitely be welcomed by those who want to see peace in the tension-ridden region, there is no denying that the task is daunting if not Herculean and needs to be assessed in the light of hard realities without downplaying the positive omens.

The happy developments governing the perennially belligerent Indo-Pak ties have become a matter of discussion not only in the region but also at the larger international arena for the simple reason that a glimmer of hope has arisen on the possibility of a better relations. An optimism exists in many quarters that the two nuclear-powered inimical nations may now be able to find common ground to improve their badly ruptured ties. However, this feeling is "cautious" and also "guarded" in the quarters familiar with the character of their bilateral ties -- albeit the positive aspects are not lost. The last SAARC summit in Pakistan provided a badly needed dialogue at the level of the top leadership of the two countries on the sidelines of the conference of the seven regional heads of government and the outcome of this contact had remarkably changed the nature of the New Delhi-Islamabad relationship. However, such optimism did exist before as well, but unfortunately fell short of expectations.

This time there is an aroma of hope that the two neighbours may be able to settle their problems through discussion. President Gen. Musharraf is upbeat that the irritants including the main "Kashmir" problem are not beyond resolution particularly during his tenure and that of Dr Manmohan Singh as India prime minister. When Musharraf visited India over four years ago, he did not miss the opportunity of having a glimpse of his ancestral house in old Delhi. 1947 partition had resulted in huge migration of people between newly created India and Pakistan and persons in both the counties occupying the helm originally belonged to the other side of the fence. Indian premier Dr Manmohan Singh hails from West Punjab, which is now Pakistan.

Coming close on the heels of some positive measures to bolster confidence building measures(CBM's) like the once inconceivable bus service across the line of control(LOC) in the disputed Kashmir region, their talks in the Indian capital had gone off fairly well in the given situation and also resulted in some other positive steps like rail communication and re-opening of Karachi and Mumbai consulates. All these augured well for reconciliatory endeavour.

This encouraging conditions notwithstanding, one cannot probably lose sight

of the fact that the peace process is contingent upon settlement or understanding on main bone of contention, which is obviously the Kashmir dispute. Two sides have diametrically opposite position on the issue, but are showing signs of readiness for flexibility. But how far this flexibility can go is the moot point. They have agreed to discuss the dispute but both have compulsions since it is too complex an issue although not beyond settlement. Pakistan president has to take his people and also big chunk of

the "Kashmiris" along with his policy on the subject vis-à-vis the peace process with India. Some Kashmiri outfits have already described Musharraf as seeking to compromise on the fundamentals of the problem but bigger such organisations have not criticised as they have either not opposed the current drive or casting cautious watch.

Realism is dawning on different circles that the dispute cannot be settled by military might and negotiations are important. In India too, there seems increasing awareness that flexibility is required for resolving this contentious issue and thereby create a peaceful Indo-Pak relationship. The ball has been set rolling and the road is bumpy towards eliminating the root cause of hostility. But this is how difficult things are accomplished in international relations. While one cannot fully count that the Indo-Pak peace process is "irreversible", certainly hope can be placed on their current efforts. Some unfavourable signs notwithstanding, the Indo-Pak peace process is unlikely to be affected much unless unforeseen developments mar the 'favourable' atmosphere. Bilateral talks at different levels are on. It is heartening to note that their leaders are willing to ignore the discouraging signs and put them behind. The overall political atmosphere in South Asia is largely contingent upon the success of India-Pakistan reconciliation.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.