Indonesia's new president : Challenges ahead

Within six years of departure of dictator Suharto (now 83), Indonesia has shown remarkably its smooth transition to full-blown democracy. Indonesians deserve congratulations on their peaceful participation in the election.

On 4th October, the deputy secretary general of the election commission, Sussongko Raharjo, officially confirmed that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (57) commanded a 60.6 per cent share of the vote over the 39.4 per cent of incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri. He takes office on 20th October.

The President-elect, popularly known by initials SBY, is the US-educated former General of the Army, one-time Suharto adjutant and a former Security Minister under President Sukarnoputri. In recent days, he appeared before the University in Jakarta as a Ph-D candidate for his doctoral thesis on poverty and unemployment, reportedly watched by 200 fellow students.

Observers of the European Union monitored the election and certified that the poll was free, fair and peaceful. The US-based Carter Centre hailed the elections as "orderly and successful".

President Megawati has kept a low profile in the wake of the vote and in her final address to the Parliament she apologised to the people for the mistakes her government did during her rule but pointed out that her administration restored stability in the country, making it possible for a democratic election after three decades of dictatorship

Megawati's failure
The taciturn and aloof President Megawati seems to have been punished for her inability to deal with economic hardship burdening the vast majority of Indonesians, including high unemployment (about 40 million people), rising prices and corruption. When she came to power in 2001, she enjoyed unrivalled popularity. She promised to look after the "wong cilik" ( poor or little people as they are known in the country).

President Megawati has been a deep disillusionment to the "little people". Many feel that she failed to deliver the goods. This time they did not vote for her and opted for rival SBY as they not only saw no improvement in their life but also felt that Megawati was close to the elites.

Within three years, she lost her popularity with the poor people and they wanted a change for a person who could deliver the promise of improving their quality of life. The same situation occurred in India when the BJP government neglected the poor and they voted for the Congress. The greatest difficulty Megawati faced during her Presidency was her failure to connect with her people. The Jakarta Post blamed the "limited intellectual weight of her leadership and the poor quality of her government's policy decisions."

Despite the defeat of President Megawati, every one believes that credit must be given to her for maintaining political stability in the country and there was no tussle between Parliament and the President as was witnessed during the Presidency of Abdurrahman Wahid. Media Indonesia praised Megawati's "golden work" in allowing the voting process to be fully democratic.

Challenges ahead for the president-elect
The President-elect has a reputation to be a moderate, capable and cautious administrator. He is widely supported by Western governments, who appear to be pleased with his relatively strong stance against Islamic fundamentalism. His speech at the ceremony to mark the first anniversary of the Bali bombings was especially well received by Western governments.

While Indonesian newspapers were ebullient about the election, they were quick to remind the President-elect of the tasks ahead. In a cautious editorial, the Kompas daily said that as a President directly elected by the people, the next leader would enjoy considerable power and authority. It further added: " A clean President, a clean cabinet, a caring government and a government which serves people, that is what we all hope for". Bisnis Indonesia said that the result proved that " people want change" but it also warned Indonesia's next leaders "they will face a tough time solving Indonesia's many problems".

President-elect Yudhoyono will have to introduce many reforms in the country including the judiciary. He has promised to restore confidence of foreign investors, to boost economic growth, restore the education system and above all fight endemic corruption. Despite leading in the polls most of the year, little has been disclosed about his policies. How is he going to do any of these things he has to detail yet.

Another challenge is to address vigorously the activities of Islamic extremists in the country. It is a very sensitive area. The BBC's Rachel Harvey was not holding her breath. " Anyone looking for the President-elect to make banning the regional extremist network an early priority could be disappointed. Few Indonesian leaders, political or religious, are willing even to use the name of Jemaah Islamiah in public for fear of alienating a predominantly Muslim population", she stated.

A political handicap for the President-elect is that although he has been popularly elected as the President, he does not control the Parliament. His rival political parties are in command. His Democratic Party-led coalition has only 103 of 550 seats in the Parliament. In such situation, he needs to carry the Parliament with him to introduce reforms and therefore he will need tact, persuasiveness and skill to manage the Parliament to achieve his goals.

Singapore's The Strait Times said that Yudhoyono's biggest immediate challenge would be to make Parliament a partner in his crucial reform programme. There is a suggestion by some observers that he may constitute his cabinet with members drawn from different political parties so as to have a "smooth sail" through the Parliament.

Another important issue is the dialogue and resolution of separatist movements in Aceh and Papua. Low level armed conflicts with hundreds of deaths and gross human rights abuses by military operations have been reportedly going on for some years in these areas and military solution is not an option because it has failed in the past. As a former Security Minister he is fully aware of the situation and during his tenure, he advocated for a political solution. It is likely that he may accord this issue as one of the priorities of his government.

After the loss of East Timor, many outlying islands are toying with the idea of secession from Indonesia. Observers believe that there is a need for balancing an effective central authority in Jakarta and granting greater degree of autonomy to these areas, and how he does it will be closely monitored.

Despite his popularity and political skills, many critics accuse him of equivocation in his decision. Often he is known to hesitate to take action that is not bold. His desire to introduce reforms including curbing corruption will therefore be closely scrutinised. The Economist expressed doubts about the ability of the President-elect Yudhoyono to deliver the goods. It stated : " He is intellectually curious, more comfortable in the spotlight than Megawati, and widely viewed as a man of integrity who would be strong in times of crisis. But he is also thought to be indecisive and too much of a micro-manager, nor is there much to separate him from Megawati on policy".

There is also a concern among some quarters in the country that a former General has been elected as the President and this does not augur well for development of democracy. In a country where military had dominated politics for much of its post independence history, Malaysia's The Star wrote: " Although their overt role has been declining since Suharto's ouster in 1998… the Generals still retain immense behind-the scenes influence which many experts say presents a serious threat to democracy." While others including The International Herald Tribune were less alarmist, pointing out that even the President-elect General Yudhoyono wanted to, it would be hard for the General to reverse the democratic trend.

Conclusion
President-elect Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's victory is a triumph for a former soldier who ran as a candidate for the tiny Democratic Party against the big established parties. He showed that in direct Presidential elections people will vote for the candidate they like, not the one they are told to vote for by parties.

Indonesia has demonstrated to the world that a rapid transition to democracy in the most populous Islamic country in the world does not lead to chaos. It has shown to the world that democracy and Islam are compatible.

Under President-elect Yudhoyono, Indonesia has to demonstrate not only a moderate and tolerant country but also a country with better security in the face of terrorist attacks allegedly from indigenous extremist network Jemaah Islamiah. Good governance, reforms, economic recovery, reconciliation and security against terror attacks must be the hallmark of the new government headed by the President-elect.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.