The inexcusable power crisis
Till the beginning of 2004, it was touch and go. As the winter of 2005 approached, a new phenomenon was observed. The electricity shortage rose to 1,000 MW. But the Ministry of Energy claimed load-shedding of between 600 to 700 MW per day. A handful of retired professionals pooh-poohed the crisis in power supply, perhaps because of their extended professional life, either as consultant or as member of some advisory committee appointed by the government. The State Minister for Power's forecast proved inaccurate. To make matters worse, he put his bet on the wrong energy horse.
Against a peak daily demand of 4,600 MW in mid 2005 (Power System Master Plan, 1995), the country's total average generation stood at approximately 3,400 MW. The captive generation of over 1,000 MW is exclusively consumed by private business and industries, and is not hooked with the national grid.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. Persistent shortage led to a crisis situation, but the Ministry of Energy remained unperturbed. Only in recent months, the government unwillingly acknowledged the severe power crisis prevailing in the country.
To help remedy the situation, either the State Minister for Power Iqbal Hassan Mahmud or the Prime Minister's Office is trying to procure power plants on rental basis as an emergency management measure. Reportedly, the Power Division has finally selected three rental power plants. What, however, is intriguing is how the costly rental for a term of "fifteen years" can be an emergency measure and why it was created.
Electricity in Bangladesh is synonymous with urban dwellers. Three to four hours outage is now common in the cities and towns, while the reverse is true in remote villages.
A similar power crisis was witnessed in mid-1996 due to non-fulfilment of megawatt targets in the fourth five-year plan period (1991-96). 590 MW shortage was created during the period against a forecasted demand of additional 1000 MW (200 MW annually) then. The fifth five-year plan (1996-2001) witnessed a historical improvement, additional 1,750 MW (350 MW annually), showing a total surplus of 500 MW.
The present government barely survived the first two years of their five-year tenure from the surplus created earlier. Now, the Ministry of Energy is trapped in the challenge of generating additional 350 MW annually i.e. 1,750 MW during 2001-2006.
Against this huge demand, so far 80 MW Tongi plant is the only visible contribution of the present government with their own planning and execution. Even this plant tripped 39 times between March and September 2005 and incurred a loss of Taka 34 crore by not being able to sell power from the low quality plant installed at a cost of about Taka 360 crore.
Incidentally, a 100 MW gas turbine plant costs about $35 million (including erection and commissioning) in the international power market. However, BPDB's experience with Chinese suppliers' plants are horrendous. The first 210 MW plant at Rauzan, Chittagong encountered over 72 times scheduled and unscheduled outage up to 1997 (commissioned in 1993).
Load-shedding in the evening peak time is a common phenomenon. Day time shedding has now added to the distress along with low voltage that damages the motors of agricultural pumps as well. Apparently, the Ministry of Energy is either unaware or unconcerned that a mandatory policy decision was made in 1996 to support the agricultural pumps that would operate during night only (between 12 and 6am) everyday to avoid load-shedding and low voltage.
The decision worked well because it offered a dual advantage: first, it ensured uninterrupted quality electricity for six hours and, second, it hindered stealing in the nearby residences for fear of being caught. Unfortunately, radio and television advocacy program for farmers has also been suspended!
The prescription for reducing load-shedding for this summer is the same as it was in the past years, load management, closing of shops etc. But, as usual, nothing seems to be enforced. The government deceives itself by underestimating the demand (to around 4,000 MW, while the government-adopted Power System Master Plan, 1995 demand scenario was shown at over 5,000 MW in 2006) and "overestimating" the supply to around 3,800 to 3,900 MW. Nevertheless, during the peak summer (of 2006) load-shedding is likely to range between 1,600 to 1,800 MW, if not more.
Though the Energy Ministry is complacent about the power situation, understandably there is a frantic flurry of activity in the Prime Minister's Office. Perhaps, the cabinet has not yet scheduled any emergency meeting on electricity. But the State Minister for Power Iqbal Hassan Mahmud is busy counting the number of plant shutdown and generation loss, etc. Mark Twain once commented that some people use statistics the way a drunk uses lamp- post -- not for light, but for support.
We Bangladeshis are crisis-oriented and crisis-callous. Our political masters and the bureaucrats who are comfortably sitting in the driving seat do not seem to understand that it is rationally unlikely for the power crisis to be over soon. Through some miracle, some improvement may be in sight by end 2008. But as soon as the crisis leaves the front page and nobody is held accountable, the wolf would come.
In our case, the wolf was indeed at the door earlier last winter; it has gone away for a time. But it will surely be back, and may well bring the whole pack with it. For beyond this summer looms the peak load demand of over 5,500 MW in the summer of 2007.
Indeed, it might appear to many that the Ministry of Energy does not have adequate and appropriate policies and programs for implementation. Even if they exist, they are there for academic interactions in seminars. Some citizens say that the government has responded to the demands of business houses for action in an uncoordinated, spot basis, seeking remedy for the immediate pains we were complaining about the loudest.
The truck mounted or skid mounted power plants would not solve the crisis. It is time to insist on a thorough health check-up (in the power sector). Admittedly, we are suffering from mental malnutrition. We should now take time to read and understand the labels on the medicine bottles. The one thing we must guard against is taking a panic dose of wrong medicines, as we have been doing in the past three years,.
In our unrestrained exuberance, and pursuit of many goals, we have created electricity famine that was never expected of a democratic government. There already exists an anomalous situation between the urban and rural, the old and so-called new Dhaka electricity management to supply on the one hand, and inequitable generation between the east and west zone, on the other.
The Palli Biddut Samities' (PBSs) consumers suffer most. At times for days even weeks electricity does not reach some PBSs but the people have to pay for even a non-consumption of power. Recently, some residents of Kansat, Chapainawabganj, protested. And for the first time, in the history of Bangladesh, twenty innocent residents of Kansat were killed and many others were injured in police firing on demonstrations.
Instead of sympathizing with the poor rural people's tragedy, the State Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmud said: "I strongly believe there was politics behind Kansat incident. "While the people of Bangladesh have become extremely concerned about highly volatile energy supply and its consequent impact on energy security in the country, the Ministry of Energy is busy formulating energy export policies. Amazingly, an accomplished academician of Bangladesh also supports undersale of one energy resource through indirect export!
The Energy Adviser, by way of making a wish list for 300 MW new generation from renewable resource, indicated a total power demand of 6,000 MW up to 2011. This forecast, however, contradicts the Power Division's published monogram which shows a demand target of 9,840 MW by 2012 and indicates an additional need of 6,210 MW by 2012 or about 690 MW annually.
It is no wonder that Bangladesh needs power to improve its economic health. No one doubts this. Perhaps the authorities are not certain. Yet, before the next national election, the government intends to show that they would like to provide affordable and reliable electricity. How that will happen? No one knows. They are neither strong willed nor focused on electricity.
Now, we know the best and the worst that could happen to us and what it would cost. The nation in now faced with the fundamental issue of how to balance electricity demand and supply most advantageously in the periods beyond 2006.