Iraq: More of the same?

By Arshad-uz-Zaman
24 May 2006, 18:00 PM
A new government has taken oath of office in Baghdad exactly five months after the elections and the three key positions of Defence, Interior and Security are vacant. Like previous US-led attempts to stabilise the situation in Iraq, will this also prove to be a non starter?

The daily dose of death in Iraq -- according to that day's count it was more than two dozen is destabilising different parts of the country. The opponents of the occupation regime were giving their answer to the ceremonies within the highly protected Green Zone. In fact this death through suicide bombings, planting of mines and various other methods have become routine affairs and death toll of the Iraqis has virtually ceased to be significant. The American death toll has crossed the 2000/ mark.

There were no celebration for this event of oath taking although the Iraqis are reported to have strongly haggled for positions in the Cabinet. As is well known it is the Shias, who have come out as victors in the elections, the Kurds in the North following and the Sunnis, who were the real rulers during the Saddam Hussein regime, third. In fact Sunnis had to be coaxed to join the election fray and later join the government. The Kurds, who played a leading role in inviting the Americans to intervene more than three years ago are consolidating their place within their part of Iraq and are occupying the post of Head of State.

Nuri al- Maliki, the new Prime Minister has spelt his number one priority and that is to go after those, who are daily pushing the country closer to civil war. Those who are raining daily death and havoc within Iraq, have set out their goal clearly: throw out the occupation forces. To attain this end they are prepared to shed fraternal blood and put an impossible price tag.

On the news that a government had taken oath in Baghdad US President George W. Bush, with his wife Laura standing by his side, expressed satisfaction that finally a government was in place in Baghdad. There was no enthusiasm in his gesture and that for good reason. Along with the pictures of the oath taking ceremony came pictures of death and arson and the body count was more than two dozen of whom some were Americans. It is clear that the opponents of the occupation regime will not stop until the foreign troops have left Iraqi soil. Brezinsky, the National Security Adviser of President Bill Clinton clearly stated that the presence of US troops in Iraq was the real problem and suggested that the US look for an honourable way out.

That way, it would seem no other than pulling the huge US force out of Iraq. The US has done it before in Vietnam in less honourable circumstances, than what seems possible in Iraq. Nobody seems prepared to buy the proposition of exporting democracy into the inhospitable Middle East. The situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban appears to be rearing its head again, is a strong reminder that that rocky country is even less fertile for democracy.

Longer the occupation regime continues, more plausible becomes the unthinkable -- splitting of Iraq in three parts. Has a great power like the US taken into consideration what such a situation would entail? The option for the US has become awfully limited. Time for a hard decision seems to stare in the face.

ad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.