Iraq quagmire: Bush's dilemma

By Mohammad Amjad Hossain
25 November 2005, 18:00 PM
With the rise in number of deaths of American soldiers in Iraq, there has been mounting pressure on Bush administration to pull out troops from Iraq. The death toll passed 2000 mark early this month. Several thousands have been wounded, many of them may not be able to have active life. The two schools of thought have emerged on the withdrawal of troops. Pro-administration group is of the opinion that total withdrawal of troops at this stage tantamounts to surrender to "terrorists", and Iraqi administration would face serious turmoil in the absence of well-organised police and military forces. President Bush's recent rhetoric is that when Iraqis themselves would be able to take over responsibility American troops would be withdrawn. In this context Bush administration has been arguing that progress has been made in training Iraqi police and military forces. But it has been at snail space as of now as can be seen from the assessment of American top Commander in Iraq, Gen. George Casey, who said, "just one of the 120 US trained Iraqi army and police battalions was able to operate without US forces". It seems that the way the progress is being made in training Iraqi military and police, it will be a long drawn process.

By now 30,000 Iraqis may have lost their lives in the on-going war which began with the invasion in March, 2003. Figure could be much higher. Pentagon recently gave another account of killing or wounding of Iraqis by insurgents. That figure is around 26000. In this both American troops and so-called insurgents are involved.

The issue of going to war against Iraq is drawing attention again as a result of investigation leading to leak of the name of under cover agent of CIA. The grand jury investigation indicted Scooter Libby, Chief of Staff of the Vice-President Dick Cheney on perjury, false statement and obstruction of justice. This matter is likely to get further attention as prosecutors move toward public trial.

As the death toll of American soldiers continues to rise, the tax payers bear greater burden of the costs in Iraq war. It cost more than $ 251 billion as of October. This figure is based on the research done by Congressional Research Service. It means a person contributed more than $892 dollars to this nonsensical war.

There is growing discontent among the general Americans and they began questioning the real motive of Bush administration to go to war in Iraq which is costing billion of dollars and lives of American soldiers, apart from the massive public debt. The cost of this war is the visible erosion of American image; the breeding of a new generation of terrorists; and morally weakening of American power and will to face serious threat elsewhere. What is most interesting to witness is that the support for this war is declining rapidly as days pass by which is contrary to either Korean or Vietnam wars in mid 50's. Bush administration's frequent change in rhetoric did not bring any change in the minds of Americans except hard core Republicans. Professor of Political Science John Mueller of Ohio State University in an article in Foreign Affairs said that "... support has declined far more quickly than it did during either the Korean War or the Vietnam War. And if history is any indication, there is little the Bush administration can do to reverse this decline."

In respect of insurgency in Iraq, Bush administration has also been playing a game. Initially, Bush administration depicted insurgent as comprising Saddam Hussein's Fidayeen. Secondly, they describe insurgents as the followers of former Baath Party and army personnel. And thirdly, the notion of foreign fighters was added to this kind of rhetoric. The use of this terminology intends to include Syria and Iran in the extended war of Bush administration. The same game of regime change may be replayed here. Therefore, the situation is likely to be complicated further by this extended war, if it happens.

What actually made Bush administration to jump on the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri, former Prime Minister of Lebanon to conduct investigation and blame Syria for it is to drag Syria into the dispute to find a pretext to attack.

Against the volatile situation in Iraq, South Korea, a close ally of the United States decided to withdraw one third of its 1000 soldiers from Iraq while Italy has dramatically announced to withdraw its troops soon from Iraq.

If Bush administration does not listen to friendly advice and continues to stay in Iraq, according to its strategy, the situation is likely to get worse in future. The bottom line of insurgents' objective appears to drag on the syndrome and the United States should pull out from Iraq in a disgraceful manner as she did in Vietnam or as the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan. Quoting Washington Post-ABC news poll, the Washington Post reported on November 4, 2005 that "for the first time in his presidency, a majority of Americans question the integrity of President Bush amid growing concerns about the overall direction of the country on the economy, Iraq and even the war on terrorism".

I would like to conclude this piece by quoting Pepe Escober, who said in a signed article, Blowback :"Hardcore repression -- which means Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, anti-terrorist legislation that infringes on civil liberties -- only serve to encourage the new Jihad generation. Only two developments might prevent another bombing in another European capital, and the spread of delocalised, apocalyptic Islamist ideology: the US leaving Iraq and a decent, internationally-accepted agreement between Israelis and Palestinians. That's it -- or Jihad, and blowback, will go on forever". (Asia Times, Hong Kong, July 12, 2005)

Mohammad Amjad Hossain, a former Bangladesh diplomat, lives in Virginia