Is Kurdistan a reality now?

Should this event become reality and the signs are clearly going in that direction, it will totally change the landscape of the Middle East. Since one third of Turkish population of 72 million is Kurdish and their kins south of the border with Turkey have nearly succeded in establishing a state of the Kurds, it is of utmost concern to Turkey. Only recently Turkey broke the back of the Kurdish terrorist outfit the PKK in the south-eastern Turkey, the heartland of Turkish Kurds. The price for the Turkish security forces was more than 30.000/ dead and severe damage to economy and destruction on a huge scale in the nearly two-decade war against them. The Turkish security forces managed to neutralise the PKK-sponsored terrorist attack by arresting and putting to a high profile trial of their leader Abdullah Ocalan.

On the basis of an unwritten understanding between the long reigning President of Iraq Saddam Hussein and the authorities of Turkey, the Turkish forces would routinely cross into northern Iraq and attack Kurdish bases from which they would enter Turkey. This situation has dramatically changed with the arrival of US military might following the 'invitation' of Kurdish leaders Masud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein. We must note in passing that along with the dream of the Kurds to create a state of their own runs the long held plan of the West to establish a Kurdish state in the region. Indeed British imperialism in its heyday had very important tussle with the mighty Ottoman Empire, who held sway in the entire Arab region including Iraq. By attempting to create an independent Iraq the US is fulfilling faithfully the role of successor.

That the long friendship between Turkey and the US -- started in the fifties during the Korean war, which blossomed with Turkish membership of NATO, and Turkey's remaining totally faithful during the Cold War days -- has come under some strain, is a mild understatement. Thus eyebrows have been raised here by the prominent publication in the media of a photo showing Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul in a mediatory role between US Ambassador in Baghdad (of Iraqi origin) and an Iraqi Sunni leader. It was reported that Turkish Government's effort to entice the Sunnis to join the forthcoming Iraq elections was successful. The Turkish authorities present a spectacle of powerlessness in front of the birth of a Kurdish Republic on her borders. For what is happening in northern Iraq is nothing short of the birth of a Kurdish state.

Under the guise of elections throughout Iraq, an attempt is being made to create a three-party government with majority Sunnis -- Kurds in the north calling the shots thanks to US backing and Sunnis playing the second fiddle. The Turks, long used to power play can barely hide their anxiety in front of the march of events. Turkey has, of course unstinted support from her neighbours Iran and Syria, home of large number of Kurds. The US has installed Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader from the north to the vital post of President of Iraq. By dangling the big prize of the elections they have enticed the majority Shia leader Sistani to join enthusiastically the upcoming elections. In the meantime the drama of Saddam's trial goes apace as bloodshed assumes mind boggling proportions in Iraq.

Can US be really serious with her grand design of a Greater Middle East Project? The centre piece of that project is establishing Israel, the most loyal friend of the US as the most important player and the policeman of the Middle East with the total support of US. This was the outcome of frequent visit of Ariel Sharon, the Israeli Premier, to President Bush on the eve of his election five years ago.

If we try to make a sense of all that has happened specially in the Middle East, the conclusion is inescapable that the Bush presidency has been marked by total upheaval of the region and death and destruction on an unprecedented scale. The US has paid and continue to pay a heavy price and voices of protest continue to rise against President Bush within the US and abroad. In fact it is becoming more and more difficult for President Bush to come out in public.

If we take 9/11 as the turning point it is evident that because US lost its sole Superpower status on that day, the world entered a dangerous period of convulsion. Where is it going to end. It is very hard to fathom it.

Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador and Acting Secretary General, OIC.