Let's not forget Afghanistan

Western aid workers and officials have said that, "There was not sufficient time or in some cases the inclination to involve the people fully in the consultation process." The constitutional commission had started its work a year ago. Many emotive issues such as the role of the monarchy and the division of power between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary were subjected to intense debate within the 35-member commission. When it was alleged that the Afghan constitution was being drafted in secrecy, the commission sent out more than 460,000 questionnaires to the public and held meetings in many parts of the country.

The proposed constitution, if approved by the Loya Jirga (grand assembly) this month, will turn Afghanistan into an Islamic republic. It envisages a strong President, elected directly by the people, and a bicameral legislature. There will also be a post of Vice-President. Originally, the architects of the constitution were in favour of a post of Prime Minister. There was opposition to this suggestion from many quarters. It was argued that, given the volatility of Afghan politics and the deep ethnic cleavages, the Prime Minster's office had the potential of emerging as a rival center of power. The idea was given up at the eleventh hour. Political parties will be allowed to function freely provided they conform to "Islamic principles." This could preclude the entry of parties espousing progressive and left ideologies. The 1964 Constitution had opened up the space for left-wing parties such as Khalq and Parcham, helping them to capture power jointly. The new constitution may not allow truly secular parties into electoral politics, although the former communists are positioning themselves for a comeback.

Afghan officials have said that the new constitution will be in conformity with the teachings of the Koran. "The draft is based on Islamic principles and recognizes that no law can be contrary to the sacred religion of Islam," a constitutional authority said in a statement. The statement also emphasized that other religions would not be discriminated against. Women will be given the right to vote, and Islamic law will be implemented in a humane manner. Beheading and amputation are likely to be things of the past. This is a radical step, given the realities of the Afghan situation. Earlier attempts at introducing progressive legislation were thwarted by the religious establishment and their feudal allies. The mullahs in alliance sabotaged the 1923 constitution, which abolished slavery and encouraged land reforms, with the representatives of the majority Pashtuns.

Already some prominent supporters of King Zahir Shah have started saying that the new constitution will not reflect the opinions of the dominant Pashtuns, who currently feel left out of the power structure. The monarchy will be formally phased out, with the King given the title of the "Father of the Nation." The King's supporters have said that the proposed constitution reflects the opinion of the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance, which currently has the biggest share of power in the government. King Zahir Shah has, however, expressed the hope that the new Constitution will be accepted by the people and that it would lead to "peace, security and democracy" in the country. The new constitution is expected to pave the way for presidential elections by the middle of next year. Pashto and Dari will be the official languages, but the national anthem will be in Pashto. This could turn out to be a controversial move as Dari is more widely spoken and has traditionally been the court language.

The Northern Alliance and its allies are also not too happy with the new developments, which they think will favor Karzai and the group around him. The strongman of the Northern Alliance, Defence Minster Mohammed Fahim, has talked about floating a new party to contest the forthcoming elections. The proposed party would have been an alliance of Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek and Pashtun warlords who participated in the jihad against the Soviet-backed progressive governments of the 1970s and 1980s. According to reports appearing in the Western media, the CIA top official in Kabul had a quiet chat with Fahim recently. Fahim is known to be close to New Delhi, Moscow and Teheran, unlike Karzai, who is indebted only to the Bush administration.

Holding fair and free elections as scheduled will in itself be a Herculean task, given the anarchic state of affairs. A resurgent Taliban is getting more brazen in its attacks against the Karzai government forces and the foreign troops stationed in the country. The International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF), headed by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is woefully short in manpower and are mostly confined to the capital. Only the Germans seem eager to give the 4,000-strong American force a helping hand outside the capital. The Bush administration, though not having the best of relations with Berlin these days in the aftermath of the Iraq fiasco, is in no position to refuse the German offer. With the Taliban and the warlords ruling the countryside, the beleaguered Afghan security forces need all the help they can get.

The situation in the north of the country is fast deteriorating. The militias of the warlords Rashid Dostam and Atta Mohammed are clashing regularly around Mazhar-i-Sharif, with innocent civilians being caught in the crossfire. Ishmail Khan, the Governor of Herat, continues to be a law unto himself. The Karzai government has put some of the blame for the recent spate of attacks by the Taliban on Islamabad. Afghan leaders accuse Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of helping the Taliban. Pakistan has denied these allegations.

More than 400 people, mostly Afghan civilians, have been killed in Taliban attacks since August. Most of the international humanitarian missions in Afghanistan have closed shop and left. Karzai had said in New York while attending the UN General Assembly session that he may have to postpone the elections scheduled for June 2004 if the violence escalated. The Bush administration has asked the UN to look into the possibility of holding elections only to the presidency and postponing the parliamentary elections to a later date.

Opium production is scaling new heights. The latest UN report confirms that Afghanistan continues to be the world's largest producer of opium. Opium production is projected to go up by 6 per cent this year. It has been estimated that the opium-based economy has generated more than $2.3 billion this year, about half of Afghanistan's legitimate gross domestic product. Uruzgan, Helmand and Nangahar provinces continue to remain the biggest producers of the drug. These Pashtun-dominated areas are also strongholds of the Taliban and the Hizb-i-Islami of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who are now united in their fight against the US installed Afghan government and its foreign backers.

Sirajul Islam is a Social Sciences Researcher and Consultant.