Multi-polar world making a comeback?
Russia has a functional democracy, an important criterion of membership. It is more a guided democracy under an authoritarian ruler in President Putin. There is obviously a question mark over Russia's democratic credentials. The G-8 members however find it convenient to recognise the economic consideration of Russia's growing strength as a resource rich and rapidly developing country. It has successfully restored its legitimate status as a global power.
The fall of the Soviet system has not diminished Russia. It has economised its military might, ably supported by an expanding economy to contend with the leaders of world economy. Since 1999, Russia's economy has grown by 6 percent, totalling a cumulative expansion of 65 percent. It is second only to Saudi Arabia in oil production and is the number one natural gas producer much ahead of second ranking Iran.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. The vastness of Russia even without the former Soviet republics naturally endows the country with global importance. Besides, almost half a century of Soviet geo-political domination is an inheritance that makes the Russian Federation a natural heir to the continuity of the formidable role. But Russia's new role will be unlike the hegemony of the Soviet state. The world is not returning to one-to-one contest between the United States and Russia.
America under President Bush is shunning the bravado of the years following 9/11 for active consultation with the other powers on containing Iran's nuclear ambition. One should commend here the discretion of President Clinton in exercising America's unchallenged supremacy in a uni-polar world. Even the Americans are proclaiming the end of the Bush Doctrine.
United Kingdom has little practical scope of being an assertive global power and will instead opt for a policy based on consensus with United States. That leaves France and Germany in the European theatre. France has been able to build an assertive and independent role for her largely due to the statesmanship of Charles de Gaulle. President Jacques Chirac is a worthy successor of De Gaulle. He is actively voicing his support for a multi-polar world. In matters of spheres of influence, France with its Francophone countries is the other credible global power, although a lesser one, to engage the United States. Although most of the Francophone countries are poor and caught in conflict, they constitute a source of support for France at the Security Council.
G-8 is essentially an exclusive club of the mighty. It is neither a pact nor an alliance. In fact, it is a club of the most developed and industrialised competing economies of the world having functional democracy. At the annual summit the G-8 leaders further increase their familiarity, listen to each other on different issues, form an opinion of the stand of the other side and also take part in serving a higher goal of helping the humanitarian cause of the least developed. Presumably, the very rich provide the most to suit their purpose.
For example, last year the spending was increased to $100 billion from $80 billion in 2004. And 80 percent of the increase went to Iraq, a country without a functional government, for construction efforts and debt relief. Aid agencies of the world fret about the tardy release of fund. In some cases, only one seventh of the fund for food arrived. It is the maintenance of geo-political equilibrium that draws the energies and attention of G-8.
In today's world, global leadership is all about dominating the resources of the world. For the United States the importance and urgency is greater. The theory of the clash of civilizations only cloaks the underlying issue. Oil and gas, the prime resources, are in the Middle East, the Central Asian Republics, and in Russia. It is to US advantage that oil and gas rich emirates, kingdoms, one-man jumhuria (democratic) of Libya and post-Saddam's Iraq faithfully follow its line.
Russia resents the presence of United States in Central Asia and this resentment is shared by China. Its base in Uzbekistan has been removed and the one in Kyrgyzstan is waiting to go under pressure from Russia and China. Economic recovery and political stability is adding to the growing assertive role of Russia. She is now using her levers of pressure in holding on to her spheres of influence in eastern Europe and in Baltic states. Ukraine with a 2063-kilometres long common border with Russia is feeling the pressure. Russia has increased the export price of gas by 400 percent to chastise Ukraine for her eagerness to join NATO. It is a signal of Russia's displeasure to other aspiring countries of former Soviet bloc.
On the other hand, Russia is building closer ties with China. Last year President Putin and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao met eight times to give an indication of the closer ties. They have taken a united stand against separatist tendencies in Chechnya, Tibet and Xinjiang province. Russia and China consult each other on common stand against the United States on Iran. They are wary of the activities of western environmental and NGO groups too.
Economic ties between the two countries are expanding vigorously. It has grown remarkably this year with two way trade in the first quarter registering a 50 percent rise from last year's $29.1 billion. Armaments purchase by China has a significant place in this. Russia is also actively working on building economic ties with Japan and other Pacific region countries. The 4,100 kilometres long oil pipeline Russia is building through Siberia will end at Nakhodka on the Pacific coast so that oil could be sold to Japan, South Korea and other countries. China however wanted the new line to go directly into its territory.
Russia is benefiting much from large German investment in her economy. It is becoming the cornerstone of a special tie to the extent that a pipeline from Russia will go straight into Germany, bypassing Poland. The Christian Democratic government of Angela Markel has reiterated the benefits of economic cooperation with Russia. Her government will continue to follow the policies of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. The critics however liken it to Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of the Nazi period.
Whatever might be said, Germany has the credentials of a global power sans the military might. It is not much of a handicap in the ultimate analysis. Germany has what it needs for world leadership, the bedrock of energy security and the benefits of extensive nature of resource development. Germany may not have the clout to dictate world decisions but neither will she be a second fiddle in matters of counsel. Unified Germany now has the stature of charting her own course, going her own way in matters of decision-making. It makes Germany another centre of global power of unobtrusive nature.
China is historically an eminent country of the world. It spreads over an area of 9,596,960 square kilometres, comparable to the United States. China is home to almost 130 crore people. The economic development of China over more than a decade is a wonder of the world. Almost all the indicators point towards the making of an economic giant. GDP growth consistently hovers around 10 percent taking its per capita GDP to $5,000. It is ably supported by nominal population growth rate of 0.5 percent.
By any standard China is going through an economic boom of sustained nature. Even the rich members of G-8 have a stake in it with their business conglomerates courting China as an attractive business partner. However, its energy security is not as strong as Russia. The Russian alliance is therefore important for powering the dynamics of its economic growth. Militarily, China has the largest standing army with 200 million males of age group 15-49 fit for military service. China is a global superpower to watch in the present century.
President Hu Jintao's foreign visits show that China is giving full attention to its growing profile as a global power. In recent times, the Chinese leaders have become globetrotters visiting countries of different parts of the world. They are warming up to India and have recently opened a land transit point at the north eastern India-China border. China is taking its role seriously as demonstrated by its active participation in efforts to contain Iran and North Korea's nuclear arms development issue.
The world in 2006 is no longer America's to take. America's incapacity is now a fact. Bush doctrine is plodding. Pullout from Iraq looks even more intractable with the majority Shiites reacting to Israel's disproportionate onslaught against their Hizbollah brethren in Lebanon. The bloodletting in Iraq continues, taking American lives as well. The Afghan impasse has no end in sight. America is unsure about what to do in defusing the Gaza fireworks. President Bush, as seen in his camaraderie at St. Petersburg, is more than willing to talk and to listen to what the leaders on the other side have to say.