Musharraf for second term?

All indications were giving the wrong signals about President Musharraf's future programme. It is now clear that instead of stepping down at the end of his current term in 2007, as was expected, he is now set for a new plan to run for the second term from 2007 for another five years. The Army General who captured power through a so-called bloodless coup in October 1999 by throwing out the democratically elected government of Nawaz Sharif who had two-third majority in the National Assembly (Parliament), promised to stay in power for three years to put the house in order, but later legalised his stay for another five years ending in 2007 through a referendum. Now comes the vision of another term beyond 2007. The old adage says "who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount." But here Musharraf is not 'afraid' at all to 'dismount' but bold enough to run the tiger as he has all the moral and material support both at home (?) and abroad.

It is an open secret that US President George Bush, the new champion and guardian of democracy and a great well-wisher of Musharraf, as his key-ally in his 'war on terror', needs strong pillars at strategic points, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, to spread his network. And, undoubtedly, Gen. Musharraf is one of such dependable and strong pillars, as he has already shown his merit and mettle in Afghanistan and Iraq and has already been crowned with decorations like, "a leader of courage", and a "man of vision". So when the Pakistan Information Minister recently announced that Gen Musharraf had decided for another term beyond 2007, the picture becomes more clear about the inevitability of events and shape of things to come, as judged in the context of US strategy.

People's resentment
But while flowers and kudos are being showered on Gen. Musharraf for his bold leadership in supporting US policy in the Mid-East and elsewhere, he must be feeling the growing heat of people's resentment against his pro-US policy. He had already escaped three assassination attempts. Mere repetition of sermons of economic emancipation and development, won't help much to heal the wounds, gradually getting more painful. Many think that it is the lack of political consciousness of the people of Pakistan that had prompted army rule from time to time as a 'saviour' of the country. Even a retired Major of Pakistan Army in his popular column had recently said, while reviewing a recent publication by a former Air Chief-turned politician on "Pakistan : Politics and Military Power", that the people of Pakistan 'remain deaf and dumb" (DS May 30, '05).

But everything has its limit. There is an inevitable end to hibernation. Even constant pricking and lashing of the dumb-driven cattle make them scream. Then why not the 'deaf and dumb' people of Pakistan, even if the leaders are "blind and deaf", or pretend to be so, to serve their selfish interests at the cost of national interests. Gen. Musharraf should realise how far he should stretch himself to please those whom his countrymen had began to consider as their 'enemies'.

The gathering storm that is now brewing with growing anti-US sentiment, gives enough signal to Gen. Musharraf to count his steps before he hits any hidden-land-mine, laid by his opponents. Of course, Gen. Musharraf had weathered many storms in the past and had come out successful with flying colours. But one shouldn't forget that "one swallow does not make a summer". More to come. However, so long as the distant, but powerful, 'Light House' shows him the right path he should tread. He would continue to thrive under America's protective umbrella, at least as long as he is considered by them as very useful personality.

Definition of democracy
However, the most surprising thing is that America, which, as a self-styled champion of democracy, preaches it day in and day out and teaches governments, particularly in the Mid-East, for its adoption for the welfare of their peoples, had been shamelessly protecting despotic rulers in countries that serve its selfish and vested interests. Similarly, in Pakistan, whenever an Army General had come to power, it had never hesitated to extend its overt or covert support to the Army ruler, even if he intrudes by ousting a democratic government in power there. Perhaps America has its own home-grown definition of democracy which is applied to different cases, with different prescriptions to suit the 'ground reality' faced by America.

Gen. Musharraf faces several obstacles before he crosses the bridge to reach his destination of 'peace and security' in the region for which he is working hard in cooperation with his 'friends, philosophers and guides'. Of these, three are most outstanding and sensitive, namely, his controversial nuclear policy, dubious Kashmir policy and hesitant tribal policy. These three are vitally linked with the national interests of Pakistan about which the people would not like the government to play hide and seek, or create a smokescreen.

U-turn on nuclear policy?
Some indications regarding Pakistan's much-vaunted nuclear policy are already there to show how things are moving. Musharraf seems to be playing a big political gamble. After putting Dr. AQ Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, under house-arrest, for his alleged involvement in illegal transfer of nuclear technology to Iran and some other Muslim countries, Pakistan government declared for home consumption that Dr. Khan would never be handed over to any third country for interrogation nor any part of his nuclear centrifuge to be handed over to the Geneva-based atomic energy agency, IAEA but IAEA experts would be allowed to visit Pakistan to examine such things. Whereas, recently, in a major U-turn, totally forgetting its earlier commitments, the Pakistan government sent to IAEA in Geneva some parts of an old centrifuge to help the Agency to establish whether Iran, against which America is hell-bent to follow punitive action, is secretly developing nuclear weapons with the help received from Pakistan nuclear scientist Dr. Khan. It will undoubtedly throw a long dark shadow with ominous signs on Musharraf's path, because Dr. Khan was not the lone-ranger in the management of Pakistan's nuclear programme. Army Generals were reportedly involved in it with a widespread programme of combining Iran, Pakistan and perhaps Afghanistan, under a nuclear shield to face some Asian nuclear power, like India.

Kashmir on back-burner?
The second is the Kashmir problem which has been haunting the Pakistanis for the last six decades. Frankly speaking, there has been no serious approach on the part of the two warring governments to amicably settle the issue. However, since Gen. Musharraf's coming into power, both the BJP government led by Vajpayee and the present Congress government led by Manmohan Singh seem to have come much closer than expected to the other under rather indirect felicitation of America which is eager to bring peace between the two Asian nuclear powers to serve as a strong bed-rock for America to bolster India as a powerful Asian giant to counter another rising Asian power China. America has already been successful to buckle down Pakistan to stop "cross-border terrorism" which has been the consistent demand from India. Under US pressure, Pakistan had to withdraw its jawans and militants from Kargil in Indian side of Kashmir. And the process of 'composite dialogue' is continuing on the 'road map' set by America. How far Musharraf will be able to convince the people that Pakistan has nothing to lose in Kashmir, only time will show.

Tribal upsurge: Tip of iceberg?
And, thirdly, the simmering condition prevailing in some of the minority provinces, particularly in Balochistan, of which the recent flare-up in Sui (Waziristan) where Pakistan's main natural gas field is located, showed just the tip of the iceberg. These are much deeper things brewing for Gen. Musharraf to tackle. The tribal areas, which had been enjoying a sort of 'freehand' in managing their socio-political affairs since British rule, want now to exert further under their feudal leaders. Such is the case with Nawab or Sarder Akbar of Bugti who claims that Sui, which produces gas, belongs to him and hence demands a regular 'rent' from the Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) which runs the gas field and is responsible for production and distribution of gas throughout Pakistan. According to a report, Nawab Bugti receives from the PPL some 120 million rupees a year as 'rent', besides pocketing several extra millions of rupees per month for providing security to PPL pipelines and their operations etc. And the recent clashes between the Pakistan Army and Nawab's private army which is also well-equipped with smuggled arms and ammunitions, centering the raping of a lady doctor at Sui by some miscreants, unmasked Nawab's muscle power. It would be a difficult job for Musharraf's government to disarm tribal Sarders like Akbar Bagti. There is a possibility of spreading fire in the other tribal areas.

President Musharraf has recently boldly announced that as part of its war on terror, Pakistan army had arrested some seven hundred Al-Qaeda militants, mostly from the tribal areas, and had deported them, in which at least 250 Pakistani jawans had been killed. Every action has its reaction and nobody knows what lies ahead. The General should learn from history.

Therefore the success or otherwise of Gen. Musharraf's latest move to push for another term of five years beyond 2007 largely depends on how far he can win the hearts of the people of Pakistan by solving, particularly, the three issues mentioned above, to their satisfaction, rather than showing his too much 'extra-territorial loyalty' to please distant friends to stabilise his power. As he has said recently that Pakistan needs his leadership to continue to complete the socio-economic projects launched by him, his 'mentors' also need his leadership to continue to complete their mission -- the war on terror and spread of democracy.

But the big question is: How far the 'twin' will be able to meet?

AMM Shahabuddin is a retired UN official.