Musharraf's visit to Australia: Turnaround of political fortune

With the visit of the Pakistan's military President comes to mind what a difference a couple of years can make in politics. Before 9/11, Pakistan's standing was at rock bottom because General Musharraf seized power in October 1999 in a military coup, dismissing the elected Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif. General Musharraf was ignored by most leaders of Western countries. During the election campaign in 2000, President Bush was unable to recall the name of Pakistan's military ruler. (He knows now very well).

The 1998 nuclear testing by Pakistan in response to India's had placed Pakistan under economic sanctions by the US, European Union and Australia. Economically, it lurched from debt crisis to debt crisis.

Taking the cue from Washington, Australia's response to Pakistan's nuclear tests was one of the strongest among the Western nations. Australia not only recalled its High Commissioner from Islamabad but also suspended bilateral, defence relations with Pakistan, including the recall of Australia's Defence Adviser stationed in Islamabad.

Furthermore it withdrew its Defence Force personnel training in Pakistan and cancelled its decision to double aid to Pakistan. The visits of Parliamentary delegation, ministerial and senior officials to Pakistan were halted. The Foreign Minister conveyed to the Pakistan High Commission in Canberra its "strong condemnation of Pakistan's action".

When General Musharraf seized power, it was regarded as a pariah state and with the active support of Australia, Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth of Nations. Furthermore Pakistan's missile programme which involved technology transfers not only from China but from North Korea as well, Australia made most unhappy about Pakistan.

Rise of Musharraf
Why was the change of attitude of its? It is simply because Washington cordially embraced President Musharraf after 9/11 and President Bush welcomed Musharraf to Camp David in 2002 with the announcement of aid package worth US$3.5 billion. President Bush said: " President Musharraf is courageous leader and a friend of the United States."

If Washington could make Pakistan a close ally and President Musharraf a friend, how could Australia lag behind as Australia's Prime Minister John Howard is one of the closest allies of President Bush after British Prime Minister Tony Blair. (Howard strongly supported the Iraqi war against the wishes of many people in Australia).

The same Prime Minister John Howard and the same Foreign Minister Alexander Downer received warmly the same President Musharraf with all the protocol needed to impress the President during his two-day visit to Australia on 15-16 June. When the President spoke before them, reportedly he received standing ovation. Such rare treatment for an Asian leader, in particular from South Asia, is unique in this country.

The ceremonial functions held for the President has demonstrated that he is not only welcome in Australia but what an outstanding leaders he has been. Both Howard and Downer were all praise for his vision, determination and above all his 'commitment to democracy.' His role to combat terrorism has been profusely praised.

The General who was marginalised by the West including Australia until 9/11 is being welcomed by the same set of countries. Why? Not for his commitment to democracy because Pakistan is virtually a military dictatorship with a veneer of democratic reforms. The Constitution was changed to empower the President to dismiss the Prime Minister and the Parliament. He wears the uniform of the Army Chief which he promised to relinquish at the end of December 2004 but he changed his mind. This is democracy Pakistani-style.

Yet the US and Australia admire him because he switched his support from the Talibans to the Karzai regime and supported the US on war on terrorism in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been the transiting country for many US troops (Afghanistan being a land-locked country). Many terrorist suspects have been transferred to Washington from Pakistan. He is the key ally of the US on the war on terrorism.

Another plus point for President Musharraf is that Pakistan's geo-strategic location is a significant factor at a time when its neighbourhood is rocked by militant Islamic movement. Pakistan's neighbours are Iran, Afghanistan and India. China has been a long-standing ally.

There is also another fact that Osama Bin Laden has yet to be captured and Pakistan can play a very important role in the matter. Some analysts say that Osama Bin Laden is not hiding in border areas but is believed to be hiding within urban areas of Pakistan with the support of Islamic fundamentalists. Many personnel of Pakistan army support Osama Bin Laden and strongly oppose President Musharraf's policies. There have been two attempts on his life and he had to leave the residence of the Army chief in Rawalpindi to safe area in Islamabad's President House.

Why is Pakistan not able to capture Bin Laden? Some say that once Osama Bin Laden is captured, Washington may lose interest in Pakistan. President Musharraf knows that Pakistan becomes strategically vital or irrelevant to Washington, depending on superpower's interests in the area. He did not forget how Pakistan and Afghanistan were totally forgotten when the Soviet troops were withdrawn in 1989. Pakistan had to deal with more than three million Afghan refugees and hardly any Western country came to aid to provide relief to Pakistan.

One fact must be noted that President Musharraf has been a pragmatic leader. He shuns extremism and is a strong advocate for moderate Islam. In 2002, he was courageous enough to criticise the Islamic world as " the poorest, the most illiterate, the most backward, the most unhealthy, the most unenlightened, the most deprived and the weakest of all the human race."

His support for the US brought political and economic dividends for the country. Flush with aid and having rescheduled its debt, Pakistan has been economically vibrant and GDP has increased and its foreign reserves are more than US$10 billion. His rapprochement with India on Kashmir has been widely noted. He knows given the geo-political reality what Pakistan can or cannot achieve.

His speech in Sydney brings home to Australia's elite that poverty is the root of extremist elements in the world. He has said that terrorism is not to be regarded a predominantly strategic issue but the root causes lie in " the political disputes, deprivation and poverty that breed extremism". By mentioning "political disputes", he cleverly indicated indirectly the issue of Kashmir and Palestinians.

Furthermore he reminded the audience that the emergence of Talibans in Afghanistan was in large a creation of the US which armed and trained Talibans and Osama Bin Laden's supporters to fight the then Soviet occupation in Afghanistan. To some of Australian political leaders, the blunt message was not comfortable because many including a few senior cabinet ministers have argued that poverty has nothing to do with terrorism.

Conclusion
September 11 has transformed the alliance of the US. Those who were friends before 9/11 have distanced from foreign policy of the Bush administration and those that were ignored or deliberately marginalised by the US became friends of the US. Both Britain and Australia look up to the US for their friends.

The nationalist British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston (1784-1865) once said : " We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." The turnaround of political fortune of military leader President Musharraf of Pakistan in the eyes of Australia's leaders testifies to that truth.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.