Najaf -- new centre of Iraq conflict

Now since a month and a half Allawy has been trying with the help of US troops to establish some semblance of order in the chaos that is Iraq. Allawy has recently visited Najaf in order to demonstrate that his writ runs within the stronghold of Moqtada Al-Sadr. The US has launched a virtual ultimatum against Al-Sadr to remove his forces from around the Imam Ali Mosque, for Al-Sadr's men are supposed to use the grounds around the mosque as sanctuary to strike against Coalition forces. The critical point is the Imam Ali mosque with its golden dome, the holiest place of Shia Islam.

As if the situation within Iraq was not complex enough, Ahmed Chelabi, an Iraqi leader of some standing and who has an arrest warrant hanging on his head, has made his appearance in Baghdad to face law. It may be recalled that Chelabi was one of the earliest to arrive in Baghdad from Washington following the fall of former President Saddam Hussein. He was reported to have hobnobbed long with the CIA and is one of many Iraqi exiled leaders, who have surfaced since the fall of the previous regime. As a matter of fact Iyad Allawy has been reported to be on the pay roll of the CIA.

Although US President George W.Bush rushed to handover the Iraqi Administration to its own citizens, it would be no exaggeration to state that this exercise has failed to bring any semblance of stability to this hapless land and its beleaguered population. Along with fighting which is taking a daily new turn, has been added the drama of hostage taking of innocent civilians of diverse nationalities, who have no remote connection with the war. Since US troops are making themselves scarce on the ground, the guerillas are mounting attacks on police and other administrative posts manned by Iraqis. In the eyes of the guerillas they are collaborators of the Coalition forces. By stretching the imagination further, drivers of trucks are held hostage by the guerillas, taken before TV cameras and made to swear that they will not return to Iraq. Thousands of such trucks enter from Turkey into Iraq daily and their poor drivers sometimes are slaughtered in front of TV cameras. That emotions run high in Turkey is easily understandable. We have lately witnessed how the Philippines President Madame Arroyo pulled out her troops in a hurry.

The exercise of handover of power to the Iraqis was done with the intention that President Bush could give his undivided attention to his 'reelection' due on 2 November. In other words he has less than three months to face the American voter. A sample polling shows that it will be a close race and most Americans speak of a Bush victory. It is difficult to understand the logic. Inspite of all his efforts, Iraq continues to dominate as the main subject of the campaign. Economy, another very important topic continues to show no sign of meaningful recovery. Oil prices have reached record high at 45 Dollars a barrel.

John Kerry, the challenger is attacking Bush on two vital points. Although he voted in the Senate in favour of war, he argues that President Bush rushed headlong into war and had no idea what to do once the war was over. Kerry accuses Bush of splitting the Western Alliance, since two very important partners -- France and Germany -- have decided to maintain a distance from the Anglo-American effort. President Bush tried to patch it up with them in the NATO Summit in Istanbul at the end of June with uncertain results.

Twelve years ago the father of the present President George Bush launched a war against Saddam Hussein of Iraq. He forced Saddam to vacate his aggression and seek mercy. Saddam withdrew from Kuwait in a humiliating fashion. On that occasion President Bush built up a most powerful coalition and virtually the whole world was with the US. For his current adventure son Bush, the current President, attempted a similar coalition, beginning with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The effort miserably failed. President Bush went ahead nevertheless and the result is for the whole world to see. President Bush has landed his country and the whole world in an unbelievable mess. After the victory of Bush Senior, presidential elections were held in the US. Senior Bush was defeated by an unknown Democrat Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton. It is difficult to comprehend on what basis the calculations are made for a reelection of the current President.

Whereas former President Saddam Hussein had been thoroughly tarnished, the same is not the case for Moqtada Al-Sadr. No tears may have been shed for Saddam but Al-Sadr remains a clean name. The outcome of the eyeball to eyeball stand off will be very interesting.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador