Nuclear Iran: Is possibility of another war looming large?

While Bush administration believes Iran is in advanced stage of making nuclear weapons, Iran is insisting that its nuclear ambitions are peaceful, it only wants nuclear energy. But Iranian President's claim "Iran has joined the club of nuclear nations" has made Bush administration strong enough in its efforts to convince the 15-member Security Council that stern action is needed to stop Iran's nuclear programme.

Meanwhile, the Chief of UN nuclear watchdog, noble laureate El-Baradei was in Tehran to talk with Iranian authorities to bring a political solution and China dispatched its top nuclear expert as envoy to Tehran in an effort to defuse the crisis.

Against this backdrop, there has been spate of speculative news and interpretative commentaries in the United States on the defence planning and intelligence gathering with a view to carrying out President Bush's doctrine of pre-emptive strike on Iran although the White House in a press briefing on 10 April dismissed that notion while counselor to the President Bush Dan Bartlett is stated to have said that the President's priority is to find a diplomatic solution to the problem.

Apparently two schools of thoughts have emerged from the news and commentaries. These are: the administration was engaged in studying options for military strikes while another group did not rule out the possibility of using nuclear bombs against Iran's alleged underground nuclear sites. The fear of attack has strengthened from two counts:

Bush administration has been frustrated as its appeal was not carried out to impose sanctions on Iran in the Security Council on 26 March by the reluctance of Russia and China and secondly, Bush administration refused to join with troika of European Union to talk with Iran to defuse the tense situation.

There is no denying the fact that same orchestrated swan song by President Bush, Fox news channel, the Washington Times and a few columnists of the Washington Post as they did on the eve of invasion of Iraq has begun against Iran. After vote by the Board of Governors of International Atomic Energy Agency to report Iran's suspicious nuclear activities to UN Security Council, President Bush did not waste time to say: "the world will not permit the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons". His Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice delighted on hearing the unanimous decision of UN Security Council to call on Iran on March 26 "to suspend its uranium enrichment programme within 30 days".

There are saner elements in the US administration, who do not subscribe to the opinion of Iran possessing nuclear weapons. For example, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen.Peter Pace is stated to have said that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons and said that there are many things that can be done before any country contemplates a military solution. Another Congressman from the Republican Party Ron Paul spoke in the House of Representatives on April 05 loudly that "how soon after being discredited over the charges levied against Saddam Hussein the neo-cons are willing to use the same arguments against Iran? It's frightening to see how easily Congress, the media, and the people accept many of the same arguments against Iran that were used to justify an invasion of Iraq". But their voices would not perhaps be heard again. Instead, the voice of Tom Lantos, Congressman who is Jewish, in fact receives attention of the administration. He is stated to have said the "option for using diplomacy to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons is running out".

There is an interesting coincidence to note that another Ahmad Chalabi, (present Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq) a dissident Iraqi, who gave wrong information on Iraq's nuclear programme to Pentagon, has appeared in the person of Alireza Jafarzadeh, president of Strategic Policy Consulting Incorporated and a Fox news channel foreign affairs analyst. Alireza Jafarzadeh has provided information on Iran's secret lab; building tunnel plan for nukes; building of a secret tunnel to develop nuclear weapons and research etc.Alireza is an Iranian dissident.

Another man made catastrophe seems in the offing as the United States would not surrender its interest for Israel and controlling entire Middle East. Bush administration sees the nuclear development in Iran through the prism of Israel with whom Iran has been maintaining hostile relations since the overthrow of the regime of Reza Shah Pahlavi. The present regime in Iran, however, would not follow reasons either. Economically Iran is not that powerful and militarily cannot match with modern hardware, and nuclear arsenal of the superpower along with that of Israel for whose interest this war would likely be launched.

Geneva drama to drag Iran to the Security Council initially for economic sanctions perhaps to be followed by military attack is the culmination of the planning by Bush administration. That Bush administration was planning a possible military attack against suspected nuclear sites in Iran came out in Berlin based Der Taggesspiegel in January and Turkish media as well quoting NATO sources, which claimed that "the NATO allies had been informed that the United States is currently investigating all possibilities of bringing the Mullah-led regime into line, including military options". This reminds the same rhetoric before attacking Iraq in 2003. The President spoke his mind clearly on February 01 while talking to the media people that America would attack Iran if the security of Israel is in jeopardy. "Israel is the best ally of the United States and we would defend Israel," said President.

This is for the first time an American President came out publicly in support of Israel. We may recall that President Bush at a joint press conference in January with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany coined hard language while pointing at Iran. The President, who is on record branding Iran along with Iraq, Syria and North Korea as "an axis of evil" in his state of the union address in 2003, has said that "a nuclear armed Iran would pose a grave threat to the security of the world". The coining of words "a grave threat" reminds the identical rhetoric on the eve of invasion of Iraq in 2003. These words are reminiscent of chapter 7 of UN Charter, which authorises action to contain threat to peace and security of the world.

Israel, the closest ally of America, broke its silence. Its newly elected Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is reported to have said that "his country would not allow a nation with hostile intentions towards it to own weapons of mass destruction", which actually echoes the voice of President Bush. Israel is the only country in the Middle East region to possess nuclear weapons. In 1960, Israel began missile program with French assistance. Being strongest military power in the region, Israel has deployed about 100 short range and medium range missiles. Both are capable to carry nuclear overheads. Israel has US made F-16 and possibly F-151 fighter bombers that too carry nuclear bombs. Israel is another country which did not sign Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran signed the treaty in 1970 and signed a protocol with IAEA permitting surprise inspec-tions.According to NPT, Iran has the right to develop its nuclear technology.

It is equally true that the present leadership in Iran lost confidence of western power in view of Ahmadinijad's 'hostile' attitude towards Israel. His comment on Ariel Sharon, former Prime Minister of Israel following his massive heart attacks and that on holocaust in Germany caused concern among western leaders. The present uproar was actually triggered in the second week of January following Iranian government's order for removal of seal on equipment put by IAEA at an enrichment plant. The Washington Times, which is known as mouthpiece of the Republican Party, on January 19 came out with an editorial suggesting striking Iranian nuclear weapons production facilities, both visible and underground by American aircraft and cruise missiles. It also indicated that Israel too has the capability to do so.

The editorial of Washington Times coupled with a signed article in the same paper by Douglas Hanson under the caption: 'The Mullah's war games: US did not misread the danger signs', which pinpointed at the 'visible manifestations of its(Iran) decades-old plan to isolate Saudi Arabia,' makes one to understand that another war is looming. The recent visit of Vice-President of America to Saudi Arabia is significant, who might have possibly sought help of the kingdom to give a lesson to Iran! This is an ominous sign.

The possibility of another war also may not be totally ruled out in order to divert attention of the people of America from growing scandal and corruption charges against Republicans and allegations against President for violation of law.

Mohammad Amjad Hossain, a former Bangladesh diplomat, lives in Virginia.