Is the opposition for something new?

Contrast that with the governing party. The ruling BNP is caught in a sandwich of old and new, co-existing uneasily. They resemble two tectonic plates, which have not yet completed their clash. That is why we have a jumbo cabinet where the old guard are still clinging to their full ministerial posts, while the new breed have elbowed their way in as state ministers. It is a certainty that if the regime were to return to power, we would be saying farewell to most, if not all, of the old-timers.

Will the AL do something new?
Despite the attempt to wipe out the top echelons of the Awami League leadership last August, there was an almost absent reaction from the people. There was profound shock but precious little support. If any one, especially the "Camelot" family, wishes to see their legacy continue, as the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has in India, then was the time to take.

One of the commonly heard complaints heard about politicians is that they want power. Well, of course they do. That is their primary objective and reason for being. The real complaint is that they never prepare themselves for the leadership and therefore are next to useless when they do attain office. Or they prepare to look after their friends and benefactors, but forget about the voters.

The Awami League has failed to take advantage of a government seriously adrift. Rocketing food and fuel prices, a depressed rural economy, uncertainty over the garments industry, worsening electricity and water supply should be sufficient for any opposition to build up a movement. Joining parliament, making their case and showing maturity would have gone down well. Instead, they remain besotted with legal and electoral processes, which seem quite irrelevant to ordinary people.

There cannot be much more callous an action than calling successive hartals. This amounts to closing down workers' and businessmen's factories, shops, and offices. They are denying them the right to make a living.

More of the same?
It is likely the Old Guard will ride out any challenge until after the next election. That will ensure that Awami League has a good chance of losing the next election, and those front men will be kicked out. But then, it will be too little, too late.

Are there any AL Young Turks out there with new answers? If there are any, they will take heart if Joy dumped his job, returned to Dhaka, and made a new start. Otherwise, those waiting on the sidelines will keep their powder dry. But even if he did, what would he do? Without a compelling vision, it would merely be a case of securing the dynasty. That would not be acceptable to the wider public.

The only plausible reason for entry would be to make changes to the Old Guard, cleaning up the party at the top. That signal would do more to generate public support than any "movement on electoral reform." Reform should start at home by democratising the party.

No guarantees
It should now be obvious to all that there is popular discontent with all political forces. That does not translate into voting out an incumbent administration, however. After three elections, the voters have seen the best and worst of all the major parties. They are not likely to be impressed by "more of the same" from the opposition, despite their reservations about the failures of the current regime. It may be reasonable to attack the incumbent over corruption, but is anyone going to believe that it will be any different if the other lot are in power? They will naturally ask themselves if the alternative bunch could do any better. The answer would probably be no.

Certainly in their current format
Unfortunately, the opposition seem keen to keep to the familiar pattern. This seems to mean forming an "alliance" with so-called progressive parties (who have no electoral base) and polarising the country in a battle between secularism versus fundamentalism. This will not be enough to secure victory. It may even backfire.

It may also lead to a situation beyond their control.

Farid Bakht is the founder of Futurebangla Network.