The Palestine conflict: Rise of the Hezbollah

Indomitable Hezbollah

The Palestine-Israel conflict has gone into the back burner for a long time now. With the US completely embroiled in her Iraq misadventure and the Presidential election, which has taken centre stage, no wonder that news about the Palestine-Israel conflict appears to have faded away. Picture of Chairman Yasser Arafat of Palestine has become few and far between. From time to time we find the hand picked Palestine Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei, although what progress he is making on negotiations with the Israeli leadership is unclear. As for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel, he seems to have run out of steam. In the centre of all this is the virtual absence of the main player -- the US.

It is acknowledged by all parties that no solution of the Palestine-Israel conflict is possible without the continuous total engagement of the US. President George Bush has done so far precious little to advance the cause of peace between Palestine and Israel. He presented his 'two-state -- Palestine and Israel, living side by side formula', but did nothing to advance this proposal. On the other hand President Bush has been an open advocate of the cause of Israel to the detriment of Palestine. He has shunned the long standing elected leader of the Palestinians, Yasser Arafat and shut his White House doors to him on the instigation of his friend Ariel Sharon. The Palestinians had to produce Prime Minister Qorei so that a semblance of negotiations could be continued.

In the face of US apathy, European Union (EU) has been able to achieve precious little. It is true that by her geography and history of involvement in the Middle East, EU has continued to evince keen interest in the Palestine conflict and the Middle East in general. The UN, a long time player in the Palestine-Israel conflict appears to have gone into long hibernation and there does not appear any initiative coming from the East River. As a matter of fact the eight year stint of former US President Bill Clinton was a period of such active engagement by the US in an effort to find a solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict that the blatant partisan attitude of President Bush has come as an anti-climax to the Palestine-Israel drama.

As things stand it looks pretty certain that no forward step will be forthcoming until the US Presidential elections in November 2004. The prospects appear very interesting. President George Bush has the incumbency factor in his favour. The US voters are influenced by their pocket book. There are signs that the economy may be picking up although it is by no means certain. The mighty Dollar continues to dip. The job market shows some tentative signs of recovery. Yet the overall picture of the Bush Administration is one of stagnation. It is difficult to pinpoint any worthwhile initiative of the Bush administration.

If domestic preoccupations largely determine the fate of elections, one dominant factor of the next elections seems to be Iraq. The crisis created by President and his team shows no signs of going away anytime soon. If we analyse the series of events that have led to the US misadventure in Iraq, it began with the 11 September 2001 attack by Arab higjackers on the Twin Towers of New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC.. The blow was so severe that President Bush rushed to Afghanistan to find the mastermind of the attack -- Osama Bin Laden. Since Afghanistan was small fish (provoked possibly by Ariel Sharon) President Bush, with his loyal ally Prime Minister Tony Blair, launched a totally unprovoked war against President Saddam Hussein of Iraq. The pretext for the war was that President Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction. The two leaders brushed aside the opinion of permanent member of the Security Council like France and Russia and non-permanent member Germany. The two leaders also paid scant attention to the reports of UN inspectors Hans Blix and Baradei, who stated emphatically that they found no WMD in Iraq.

This issue of WMD has come to haunt President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair. On the question that Prime Minister Blair had "sexed up the dossiers" prior to the attack against Iraq, Blair got entangled into an unseemly wrangle with the BBC. Thanks to the report of Lord Hutton, Prime Minister Blair has come completely exonerated and a thunderbolt has hit the BBC. On the other side of the Atlantic, the testimony of Intelligence operative Kay is doing considerable damage to Bush. According to Kay there never was any question of WMD in Iraq prior to the attack.

All this is fodder for the Democrat candidates for the next President, who are fighting it out in the primaries. The front runner as of present appears to be the Vietnam war hero John Kerry. He like the other candidates are attacking Bush on his launching an unprovoked war in the face of stiff opposition of longtime allies like France and Germany.

The situation in Iraq is nothing to cheer about for President Bush. Body bags are coming to the US on a virtually daily basis. The casualty list of US servicemen is daily lengthening. If the Iraqis could not put up a credible fight due to the vastly superior firepower of the US led coalition, they are proving very adept in guerilla tactics. The capture of Saddam by US forces does not appear to have made any difference as far as the Iraqi resistance is concerned.

The swap between the Hezbollah and Israel appears to inject a new element in the Palestine-Israel conflict. Israel would want nothing better if she could neutralise Hamas. The fact of the matter is that Ariel Sharon seems to have come to the end of his wits. He has tried violent means and has launched a murderous spree on the unarmed Palestinians. He has failed in his objective to cow down the Palestinians. What his hobnobbing with the Hamas will bring him is not clear. Hamas, the fierce arm of the Palestine conflict, is unlikely to ditch the Palestine cause for dubious friendship with Israel.

Half a century has elapsed and the situation in Palestine is as bleak as ever. It is evident that the only solution that can be envisaged is what President Clinton tried -- a completely even handed approach to the problem. He came within a whisker of a solution. Neither Arafat nor the then Israeli premier Ehud Barak were ready to make the essential compromise on Jerusalem. It has become clear that there has to be a leadership change in Palestine and Israel. And most importantly a change in the White House. The people of Palestine have no option but to wait for 2005.

Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador.