Politicians-Maoists accord to cause more trouble for Nepal King

However, a six-day blockade imposed by the Maoists that crippled life across the country was withdrawn at the request of seven political parties spearheading the agitation for return of democracy. The blockade showed signs of rupture in the political parties-Maoists relationship, who have a loose anti-King unity. The rebels had ordered all vehicles off the roads in and out of capital Kathmandu in a bid to mount further pressure on King Gyanendra to quit and consequently, prices of essentials soared and people's hardship further compounded. This situation led the political parties to call upon the ultras to withdraw the programme, in first sign of a rift since they forged broad anti-monarchy solidarity based on the common cause of ousting the King from power. This sign of difference in the anti-King unity gave some comfort to the government.

But the politicians and the ultras have patched up their problems. Furthermore, they have vowed to intensify the agitation and planned more programmes in ensuing April. This has definitely come as a disconcerting news for King Gyanendra, who would have relished widening of the differences among forces that oppose him. Now the government braces itself with bigger trouble in the coming days.

Political instability is stalking the nation eversince King Gyanendra seized all powers by dismissing the elected prime minister Sher Bahadur Dueba more than a year ago. Nepal, an effective monarchy for many years, introduced Westminster type parliamentary democracy in 1990 when late King Birendra bowed to pro-democracy movement. Major political forces like the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist) and others swapped powers as new-find democracy was struggling to establish firm roots while some leading politicians in a way weakened the process by resorting to corruption and mismanaging the affairs.

This situation notwithstanding, the pattern of representative governance was progressing through trials and experiments, but a palace massacre that killed the ceremonial King and eliminated the mainstream royal family including the queen and the crown prince drastically changed the scene. The developments brought King Birendra's younger brother Gyanendra to the throne and Nepal has since been slowly slipping back to effective monarchy. The last nail in the coffin was hammered when prime minister Deuba was sacked with his cabinet on February 1, 2004 and the King emerged as the absolute ruler. He blamed the elected government of failure to make progress on the vexed problem of Maoist insurgency and also listed failure of the political parties to perform their task as was expected by the people.

Former prime ministers ageing Girija Prasad Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba, former deputy prime minister and Communist party leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and others did not take the development kindly. Political parties protested and have been demonstrating against the state of emergency that the King had imposed and other anti-democratic measures including steps against the free press. The state of emergency was later called off, but little progress has been made towards restoration of elected government.

The King announced municipal polls for early this year, and parliamentary elections in 2007.The politicians are hardly content with these plans of the monarch and are clamouring for early polls. King Gyanendra is virtually turning a blind eye to demands for early elections while blaming both politicians and the Maoists for pushing the country towards anarchy.

Some kind of backstage mediatory efforts failed to bear any fruit between the government and the radical leftists on one hand and government and politicians on the other. The Maoist insurgency has grown in intensity since 1996 and even the elected government could not make much headway in settling the issue. However, they were not too bitter to each other. The ultras control a large part of the rural areas in the far flung areas, but could not make any big impact in the urban areas barring occasional incidents and calling strikes. Their main demand is dismantling of the monarchy in every form and turn Nepal into a Republic. Many people have been attracted by their slogans in the poverty-ridden country, but many including the political parties are also disenchanted with their destructive activities.

However, the common anti-King policies have brought ultras and politicians on a broad understanding even though their differences surface from time to time. Political parties favour a conventional movement, but the Maoists are bent upon engaging the government troops and police into combat. But the differences notwithstanding, two sides maintained the unity. Political parties disapprove 'blockade' as a means of agitation against the government and the radicals heeded to their request to withdraw the indefinite programme.

Two sides also differ on country's turmoil. The politicians seek international support for restoration of democracy in Nepal while the rebels want to settle the issue by exacerbating the security conditions. The ultras are seeking to intensify their fight against the authorities through violent means while the political parties are trying to impress upon them for a more peaceful anti-government agitation. But now that two sides have reached a second accord to work in concert, agreeing broadly to force the King end his undemocratic rule, Nepal evidently readies itself for more trouble in the coming days.

Political parties and the Maoists differ on the future shape of things in the country, but have sunk differences that came to the fore centering the blockade programme. Former prime minister and Nepali Congress chief Girija Prasad Koirala arranged the new understanding between the two sides. Their united movement against the government is expected to receive a new strength as a series of programmes are in the offing. This has obviously further complicated their relations with the authorities. King Gyanendra seems to have two options -- coming down too heavily on his opponents or open a window aimed at cessation of tensions and hostilities. So far he has not demonstrated much willingness to accommodate the views of the other side although he is not expected to agree much since he too has own reasons.

But early restoration of democracy without ambiguity can help resolve the present stalemate to a large extent and it remains to be seen what way the King moves facing the new situation. Toughening of the stance is unlikely to contribute towards easing of the complex situation.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is foreign editor of BSS.