Preventing global warming

Although the treaty was concluded seven years ago in Kyoto (Japan), it remained in the cold because the Bush administration declared its opposition to the treaty and the US is the greatest polluter on earth (about 36 per cent of greenhouse gases). Many environmentalists say that the environmental record of the Bush administration is the worst in recent US history. However, member-states of the European Union (EU) have ratified the treaty and they produce about 24 per cent of global dioxide emissions.

The treaty can come into effect when at least 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of the world's emissions have ratified it. Although more than 70 countries have ratified it, the treaty could not come into effect because it did not satisfy the other requirement, i.e, 55 per cent of the world's emissions. This had occurred because the US and Russia have not ratified it. Now Russia's ratification is very crucial and will put the figure past 55 per cent "magic figure" required for the treaty coming into force.

Possible reasons for Russia's approval
Until recently, Russia was not seen as interested in ratifying the protocol because it believed that it would harm its interests as an oil-producing country (it exports about 9.42 million barrels of oil per day). The change of heart was reported to be for many reasons and some deserve mention.

Some analysts say that Russia has made a deal with the EU. The EU will support Russia's application for membership to the WTO in return for Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Second, Russia's approval of the treaty is intended to offset international criticism of its harshness towards Chechnya and the bad publicity it received in the West for the recent announcement of President Putin's political reforms that are seen to be contrary to democracy. Finally, since the treaty allows the sale of surplus carbon credits -- a surplus Russia expects to gain -- well-connected Russians will seek to profit from credit sales. Whatever may be the reasons, Russia's participation in the protocol leaves the US in the cold and isolated.

Global warming and the environment
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere helps determine Earth's surface temperature. Both carbon dioxide and temperature of the earth have risen since 1950. Scientists recently have found out that the emission of carbon dioxide has doubled during the last two years, raising fear that the world may be on the brink of runaway global warming.

Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are trapped within the atmosphere of the earth that have caused global warming. The more carbon dioxide is released in the atmosphere, the warmer the planet gets. Environmentalists say that the burning of fossil fuels (petrol, coal, etc) is poisonous to the tarth because as the earth warms, the absorption of carbon dioxide by vegetation -- known as carbon sink -- is reduced.

It is reported that greenhouse gas emissions in the US will increase 43 per cent in that country between now and 2020. The petrol-producing countries are hesitant to accept this finding and they argue that the earth is getting warmer because of a natural change. Climate is never uniform and changes from year to year, decade to decade, because of the natural cycle that could not be identified.

Since the earth has been warmer, it has been reported that since the 1960s, global snow-cover has decreased by about 10 per cent, mountain glaciers in non-polar regions are in widespread retreat, and winter icy spells in the northern hemisphere are two week shorter than a century ago. The Khumbu glacier of Mount Everest is reported to have retreated by 5 km down the slope of the mountain. All these phenomena have been occurring because of global warming.

Other ice fields in the Arctic have also shrunk dramatically. In 2003, it is reported that large areas of open ocean have appeared near Russia, Alaska, and Canada. Some climate models project that the ice in the arctic region will be gone in summer by the end of the century.

Icebergs as big as 11,400 square km, four times the area of Long Island of New York, broke away from Antarctic in 2000. In March 2002, the collapse of the ice shelf, as big as 3,250 square km from Antarctic re-ignited serious fears of global warming and its catastrophic knock-on effects on low-lying lands including Bangladesh.

As ice melts and warmer seawater expands, the oceans will rise. How much depends largely on how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue to emit. Scientists have projected serious weather and climate changes. Siberia and Canada could experience a warmer, wetter climate. Other regions could suffer more frequent and severe droughts. Higher global temperature may give rise to storms and hurricanes (some Caribbean islands and Florida had experienced three hurricanes in one month with devastating loss of lives and property).

Rising sea level could engulf many island-countries (Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Tuvalu and Nauru in the Pacific Ocean). It may also adversely affect Bangladesh. Experts believe that the rise could affect more than 70 million people in China, 60 per cent of the population in the coastal districts of Bangladesh, 15 per cent of the population of the Netherlands and 10 per cent of Egypt's population in the lower Nile delta. Furthermore the US is not immune from such occurrence. It is reported that a 17,000 square km (size of Connecticut and New Jersey) in the US is expected to be submerged under water.

The Executive Director of the Nairobi-based UN Environment Programme Dr. Klaus Topfer states: "Ocean -related issues will almost certainly dominate the international agenda during this century. If as predicted the Earth's continued warming could accelerate seal-level rise and add up to 1 metre to the depth of our oceans."

Why was the Kyoto Protocol agreed?
International action on global basis is an imperative need to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. An international agreement was negotiated in 1997 in Kyoto to limit the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that scientists believe contribute to global warming. The Kyoto Protocol requires participating countries to reduce emissions on average by 5.2 per cent by 2012 compared to 1990 emissions. It is the only international treaty that provides mandatory targets and timetables to reduce emission of gases for industrialised countries.

Another interesting feature of the Kyoto Protocol is the carbon-credits, the name given to undefined units designed to offset green house gas pollution. The idea is that a country-polluter must purchase credits or face further action. It has been calculated that 20 trees offset some of the polluting effects of a car driven 100km. A common example being canvassed is the purchase or lease of forest areas in other countries, mostly developing countries, to act as "sinks" for the excess carbon being emitted by polluter-countries.

Conclusion
David Suzuki, the noted Canadian environmentalist, is of the view that due to environmental degradation, the planet has changed almost beyond recognition. He has further stated that, "Only a few decades ago, the quality of our water, soil, and air were radically different ... If biologist are correct, virtually all wilderness on the planet will disappear within the next thirty years."

Global warming is a threat to the mother Earth and its inhabitants. It is a global problem and it has to be addressed globally. The slogan is: "Think globally but act locally." This generation must make decisions so that future generations will live within healthy environment. All countries must act together to reduce the greenhouse gases protecting the Earth, now and into the future, backpedaling the single-minded pursuit of profit and growth by emission of greenhouse gases.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.