Sri Lankan elections: A verdict against the 'co-habitation' government?

The parliamentary elections themselves were a result of the long running differences between the president and the prime minister. The midterm polls were called by the president when the problems stemming from their rivalry came to a head and the functioning of the government had reached a near-standstill in several areas. On certain occasions, president's directives were countered by the government headed by the prime minister while the former also challenged several decisions of the prime minister. President Chandrika late last year dismissed three key ministers when authorities within the government were found to be collapsing with divergent directives. It occured when prime minister Wickremasinghe was away to Washington for talks with president George Bush on the peace process in Sri Lanka, which had made some headway following several rounds of talks between the government and the Tamil militants. The president and the prime minister, two principal political foes, took differing position on the peace issue with the former against giving too much concessions to the Tamil militants and the later favouring a soft stance.

This attitude is nothing surprising since they came from two rival political forums which clashed at both presidential and parliamentary elections. Chandrika defeated, albeit narrowly, Wickremasinghe in the presidential elections for a six-year term in 2000 while the alliance led by the prime minister beat the one headed by the president in the parliamentary polls that took place later.

Sri Lanka has a strange constitution which is neither presidential nor parliamentary form of democracy as the government is run by the prime minister and his council of ministers but the presidency is not ceremonial. On the contrary, the president wields considerable powers including sacking of the ministers, prime minister and scrapping of the parliament. At the same time day-to-day running of the government rests with the council of ministers. This did not cause any serious problem for the country before but led to a clash of interests and powers when Chandrika and Ranil were catapulted to the positions of the president and prime minister. However, they favoured a "Co-habitation" government since they had no other option in an undesireable situation created by the elections. The government and country suffered and the expected development was that at one stage either side had to take full control. The parliamentary polls have given that control to the president because in any case Chandrika would have remained at the helm till her current term was over.

Even if Wickremasinghe would have won the polls, the stalemate would persist. So, the voters opted for ending the co-habitation authority and the only choice was to favour the president who would not disappear from power even after a defeat but the prime minister would. However, the verdict is not decisive as president's alliance won 105 seats in the 225-member parliament, falling short of the absolute majority and thus depend on smaller parties for installing a government.

In the peace process too, the issue of divided authority was causing a lot of problem. Ranil's government was working for a possible settlement with the Tamil Tigers through discussions mediated mainly by Norway but this process had become somewhat moribund because of clash of powers between the president and prime minister. Most people of the country seem to be in favour of peace with the Tamils and also welcomed Ranil government's moves in that direction. But they appear to be frustrated over the stalemate in the negotiations as the president often sought to scuttle the progress even though she said peace was desirable. Most Lankans felt that here too only one authority should exist as far as the government is concerned and they opted for the president. Chandrika's position before the polls that she would carry forward the peace process but not at the expense of the majority Sinhalese worked in her favour. The split within the Tamil Tigers at the time of the elections also helped Chandrika as Lankans presumably understood the need for a strong authority in Colombo which can effectively deal with the Tamil militants.

The very fact that the mandate in the polls has not been a clear one for any side causes concerns about the future shape of things in the country both in respect of political stability and prospects of success in the dialogue with the rebels. Ranil alliance secured 85 seats, not lagging too behind Chandrika's forum. The emergence of the smaller parties with certain degree of influence in holding the sway seems critically important for providing stability to the government. Mahinda Rajapakse has been chosen as new prime minister by the president from her alliance which won maximum seats but a stable government hinges on the support of smaller groups. This makes the new government also vulnerable since it will not be able to execute policies of its own as smaller parties will have a big say in its affairs because their support is crucial for the survival of the government.

The Tamil Tigers would have preferred a win by Ranil's party or alliance but this has not happened even though peace talks hit snags over the last one year. Chandrika's known strong attitude and her victory in the parliamentary polls may force the Tigers review their present ceasefire and military strategy. However, no major shift is expected for the time being as parties concerned would like to see a status quo. The parliamentary polls in Sri Lanka has given a reprieve from the irksome and troublesome "Co-habitation" government although the outcome has not guaranteed a stable government. Both sides will now take a new look at the peace process which may obviate whatever progress made so far. The government and militants will be well advised to preserve the precious gains made in the dialogue through painstaking efforts and carry them further for the larger good of the nation.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.