Sri Lankan scene: Cautious optimism

The much-awaited dialogue between the government and the Tamil rebels on the complex crisis of civil war in Sri Lanka appears to have gone well in the given circumastances. The talks in Geneva took place nearly after three years of last round of such dialogue and the Lankan scene worsened considerably during the long interregnum and so much so that recent times saw a series of violent incidents raising fears for resumption of full-blown hostilities. Such a fast deteriorating situation was salvaged, thanks to the difficult and dogged mediatory efforts by Norway, which made a fresh dialogue possible at a time when it looked remote.

The two-day talks from February 22- 23 may not have produced anything very remarkable, but the outcome came as a great relief both nationally and internationally. For, both sides agreed to honour the instable ceasefire and vowed to maintain the atmosphere conducive for next round of dialogue in April. Indeed, this is a very positive development when viewed in the context of a situation where the government and the rebels only a few weeks ago were bracing for resumption of the hostilities.

The dialogue did not cover the nitty gritty complexities of the civil war and a possible settlement since two sides rightly devoted time on maintaining the truce that had appeared on the verge of collapse. Indeed, salvaging this situation was not an easy task. And the government and the rebels deserve kudos for bringing back the positive atmosphere. Such contentious issues like the extent of powers in the autonomy for the rebels and a timeframe for a settlement as earlier demanded by Tamil militants supremo Prabakharan did not figure prominently. Discussions on these would have in probability landed them in difficult situation at this stage. This realisation has dawned on both sides and substantive issues would be taken up in the next round of talks.

The Lankan imbroglio nosedived after Mahinda Rajapakse won the presidency on a hardline stance on the Tamil issue compared to his main rival and former prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe, who preferred dialogue rather than use of force in settling the conflicts with the rebels. It was during Wickramsinghe's tenure as prime minister that the current fragile truce was signed and several rounds of talks between the two sides took place outside the country. The dialogue was vexed, but

made remarkable progress given the thorny nature. The militants agreed to give up the demand of a separate independent Tamil country in preference to greater autonomy. The government side also gave several concessions. This infuriated president Chandrika Kumaratunga, political rival of Wickramsinghe, and finally she sacked his government claimaxing their differences on attitude towards the Tamils. The midterm elections for parliament brought Chandrika's Freedom party and Peoples Alliance to power and hawkish Rajapakse was made the premier and the peace process suffered severe setbacks.

As Rajapakse is in helm as two terms of Chandrika is over, the government- rebel ties appeared to touch the lowest ebb. However, he as the president of the nation is also stressing on the need for peace with the rebels, whose supreme leader Prabakharan gave the government December 31 for a broad framework of a settlement of the civil war or risk resumption of hostilities. The government expectedly brushed it aside as "totally impractical". Evidently, the Norwegian government seemed flabbergusted, but did not give up hope and eventually succeeded in bringing two sides to the negotiating table through painstaking efforts. After the talks, Solheim, the Norwegian peace envoy, exuded optimism about the eventual settlement of the problem while he did not play down the complexities.

Oslo's mediatory efforts is not without opposition in Sri Lanka since communist JVP, an ally of president Rajapakse, questions rationale of Norwegian role. However, it is good that the president lately chose to turn a blind eye to such criticisms and preferred seriousness for talks. The opposition parties say that would lend support to resolve the crisis through talks.

The dialogue has generated a sense of cautious optimism about the shape of things to come in the future. Since the government and the rebels hold diametrically opposite positions on certain key issues, a solution to the contentious crisis is unlikely to be on the cards .But what is important is the process to find a settlement, the pitch of which has unfortunately been queered as discussions were stalemated. Now the Geneva dialogue has provided the much needed ray of hope and this beacon may lead to something tangible even though the future talks are expected to witness intense controversy and debates before a deal can be clinched. One good sign is that there has been a significant slackening in the war of words that contributes to provocations.

The positive development notwithstanding, one cannot lose sight of the fact that in the past good ambience did not hold for long as bitterness and acrimony that followed marred the progress. This time the strife-torn country may have borrowed time, but this opportunity should be turned into the basis of mechanism that may help find a settlement. A top leader of the Tamil Tigers S. P. Thasmiselvan said after the talks that the rebels gave the government two months time to make good on the promises made during the dialogue or risk a return to hostilities. A government spokesman expressed satisfaction about the outcome, but stopped short of making any concrete comment on how the future will unfold. Clearly, the rebels are unwilling to give much time while the government is unlikely to rush with any agenda for any settlement. Two sides need to demonstrate patience and realism since the crisis warrants time for any breakthrough, which, however, is not an easy task.

The process should continue and at least the ceasefire must be observed by both sides should they want progress. In any case, return to hostilities will lead to nowhere. The government and the militants must be mindful about this for the sake of their country and people. The window of opportunity created following the Geneva talks after a long gap needs to be seized with a spirit of accommodation, shunning stubbornness.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.