Street power after the party

The day after, two judges lay dead after an Iraqi-style suicide attack. The war against state organs, in particular the judiciary, had been temporarily halted in an understanding between terrorists and the law-enforcement agencies, to allow the Saarc jamboree to continue without a hitch. The districts had been emptied as police squads were called on to lay a cordon of steel around Dhaka. There is no doubt the JMB or any other underground guerrilla band could have struck at will in any small town. Now they have.

Then, the government, still in self-congratulatory mood at a "successful" summit of pomp and ceremony was then brought down to earth by having to meet the aid "partners.". The tactics employed by the donors suggested very little about partnership. A newspaper headline blared that the donors had given an "ultimatum" to the government for good behaviour over the next fifteen months, or the tap would be switched off.

Back to the street
Now we await the spectacle of the Opposition challenge to the Government on November 22nd. This had been postponed for the Saarc Summit too, and moved from November 15th. What is in store? The regime is entering its final few months. By law, it has to vacate its offices by October to make way for a 90-day caretaker government to administer elections. Will it be able to survive until then? Not according to some in a suddenly "cocky" opposition. They are drawing up plans for an invasion of the capital city. It seems they expect several hundred thousand people to flock to Dhaka, to the rallying cry of "Cholo, cholo, Dhaka cholo." Will it be a picnic, a damp squib, or will it turn out to be the turning point?

We can still remember the fiasco of April 2004 when the illustrious General Secretary of the Opposition declared he was in possession of a "trump card." We waited with bated breath, but in vain. The finale was postponed. Without a trace of embarrassment, the opposition continued and found a new weapon. With some very coincidentally timed comments by a couple of ambassadors, they decided that the hitherto-successful electoral arrangements for ten years were no longer good enough to ensure a free and fair election. The aid "partners" felt it was necessary to hold a conference to discuss the best way to hold elections, giving us some pointers. No doubt we have a lot to learn from elections in Iraq and Afghanistan. The government realised they could not be held hostage to a set of criteria which would be used against them, and prevented the Tuesday Group of donors from staging the event in the volatile political winter season.

Sorry to mention that word Saarc again, but while the Saarc party was blaring away in Dhaka, the rest of us not invited were able to read in the papers what sumptuous delicacies were on their menu. Was it not uplifting to know that we can stage as good a party as the rest? Quail and salmon were on offer along with the birianis.

Meanwhile, the Opposition leader stood "shoulder to shoulder" with the people of North Bengal. She contrasted the celebrations in Dhaka with the "near-starvation" of Monga afflicted people. At last, we were seeing what would stand for normal politics. Taking the real issues to the people and passionately calling for justice.

Within a week, monga will join Saarc (sorry!) in the library of "don't use again till next year" and quietly shelved.

Why has it come to this?
What has the regime done that means it must depart today? We know what it has not done -- govern. We know that it is a shambles, and that parts of it are odious. Nevertheless, what gives the opposition the right to remove them without an election? Neither they nor the donors felt the need to change the rules of the game in 2001, so why now?

If the Awami League had spent the last two years explaining what they would do and continuously carried that message to the villages, instead of paralysing the economy with strikes, they would have walked into power on a wave of popular discontent, electoral reform or no reform.

So, why then, with less than a year to go, does the opposition look so unprepared for an election campaign? Why have they felt they have no need for "normal" politics? Do they expect to gain power the easy way? Are they so deluded?

Wild cards
Normally I would say this street confrontation is another waste of time and ineffective. The police and other forces remain in place. They are prepared to face the opposition, armed and ready. They may have, however, a chink in the armour.

To make the city look attractive they cleared the roads of rickshaws, the pavements of hawkers, and closed the wholesale market for food for several days. The huge market of Kawran Bazar has opened for business but prices are still at stratospheric levels. Traders are unhappy at their shabby treatment and the unnecessary losses they have had to incur. The rickshaw pullers are livid. They suspected they would not be allowed back on some VIP roads after the "temporary removal" during the summit. If the ban is not lifted, the government could potentially have provided tens of thousand of rickshaw pullers as foot soldiers for street battles on behalf of the opposition. They would therefore be smart to let rickshaws and hawkers ply their trades immediately well before the 22nd. The Awami League of before could have exploited the situation. I am not sure about the current bunch.

If the barricades hold, batons are wielded, arrests are made, it may become a case of "Cholo cholo basha cholo" as the "activists" and "rent-a-mobs" pack up and go home on the 23rd.

Don't push too hard
The opposition might want to ponder on another possibility. The are demanding the end to this regime. Have they thought about what they would do if the government decided to call snap elections for February? As a "concession," the government could dismiss the controversial election commissioner, amid the resignation of opposition MPs from Parliament, when they do not join next month. The regime could ask for a renewed mandate, go to the voters and ask them to decide who should rule. Their "investment" of four years of patronage could pay off and BNP-Jamaat might return in triumph! It would then be a case of "Cholo cholo bideshe cholo!"

The Opposition, which has done no grassroots preparation, would be caught flatfooted. Is this a plausible scenario? Yes. Is it likely? Perhaps not. The need to earn some more money and steal some licenses might dissuade some from this course of action. Moreover, the Old Guard of senior ministers know they are not coming back and would prefer a few more weeks of pleasure.

In this poker game, we will see who is going to call whose bluff. Meanwhile, the bombers are deciding where and whom to target next.

The author is a columnist and entrepreneur.